The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Is this the beginning of the end for Fed Chair Powell, Fed independence, President Trump’s political influence, and the Congressional majority enjoyed by the Republican Party?
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Jan 12, 2026 Political pressure mounts on the Federal Reserve, raising questions about its independence and the future of Fed Chair Powell. President Trump's hints at a replacement add to the uncertainty as market reactions unfold. AI-driven productivity emerges as a potential game-changer for sticky inflation, possibly leading to a lower core PCE. Darius explores how these changes could boost stocks, especially small and mid-cap companies, while raising concerns over U.S. policy risks. The conversation expertly intertwines macroeconomic trends and political dynamics.
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Political Pressure On The Fed Is Escalating
- Darius Dale argues the DOJ subpoena of Jerome Powell suggests broad political pressure on the Fed and its independence.
- He warns this could imperil Powell, weaken Fed independence, and reshape nomination dynamics under the Trump administration.
Cost Overruns Fueled The Investigation
- Darius details the renovation cost blowout from $75 million to $2.5 billion over six years as the trigger for scrutiny.
- He notes Senator Tillis' opposition could block Fed confirmations and stall the administration's nominee agenda.
Position For Political Risk, Don't Ignore It
- Darius advises investors to recognize politics now materially affect markets and to position accordingly.
- He recommends using systematic, institutional-grade risk overlays rather than ignoring political risk or relying solely on fundamental views.