Kopi Time E067: Year-end commentary: Testing the guardrails

We called our 2021 outlook A Bifurcated World, and the year lived up to that thesis. The global recovery has been extraordinarily uneven, from vaccine distribution to the impact of the sharp rally in asset markets, both of which have favoured the wealthy, not to mention fiscal and monetary support, which again have been the most supportive in nations with the most wherewithal.  A globally coordinated approach to distribute medical equipment and vaccines on the one hand, financial support on the other hand, would have hastened the duration of the pandemic and softened its blow to livelihoods, but that didn’t happen, unfortunately and predictably.

Our 2022 outlook is titled Testing the Guardrails. The bifurcated world, after delays and missteps, has built of some guardrails. Vaccine production is up and distribution is becoming more even. Economies are opening up with vaccinated travel lanes. Strong demand for manufactured goods and commodities is helping the emerging economies that export them. Funds and facilities for short-term challenges like debt repayment and buying medical equipment, and for long-term challenges like transition to renewable fuels, are becoming increasingly available.

Against this context, what are the key risks? What are the sliver linings? Listen to our year-ending commentary as we discuss inflation, Fed, global debt, pandemic, and emerging markets. 

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