The Bulwark Podcast
Ann Selzer: How Could This Be?
Nov 3, 2024
Ann Selzer, President of Selzer & Company and renowned Iowa pollster, discusses a surprising lead for Kamala Harris in Iowa's polls. She highlights how shifting voter sentiments, particularly among women 65 and older, play a crucial role in this unexpected trend. The conversation dives into the implications of Iowa's new strict abortion law and how it may be reshaping political dynamics. Ann emphasizes the complexities of polling accuracy and the importance of understanding demographic trends in navigating electoral outcomes.
21:10
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Quick takeaways
- Kamala Harris's lead over Donald Trump in Iowa is significantly driven by older women voters shifting their support due to changing abortion laws.
- The unprecedented polling results suggest a broader trend affecting political dynamics in Iowa, challenging previous assumptions about voter behavior and preferences.
Deep dives
Kamala Harris's Unexpected Poll Lead
A recent poll indicates that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump by three points among likely Iowa voters. The polling data, which surprised many, emerged after an analysis revealed previously unweighted numbers that suggested Harris was ahead, challenging the expectations set by earlier polls. Analysts noted the unpredictability of the political landscape in Iowa, as the poll outcomes contradicted conventional wisdom that placed Biden at a significant disadvantage only a few months prior. This remarkable shift in voter sentiment may reflect a broader trend rather than isolated incidents.
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