The Bulwark Podcast Ann Selzer: How Could This Be?
Nov 3, 2024
Ann Selzer, President of Selzer & Company and renowned Iowa pollster, discusses a surprising lead for Kamala Harris in Iowa's polls. She highlights how shifting voter sentiments, particularly among women 65 and older, play a crucial role in this unexpected trend. The conversation dives into the implications of Iowa's new strict abortion law and how it may be reshaping political dynamics. Ann emphasizes the complexities of polling accuracy and the importance of understanding demographic trends in navigating electoral outcomes.
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Harris Leads in Iowa
- Kamala Harris leads Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa according to a new Selzer poll.
- This unexpected result surprised even Ann Selzer, the pollster herself.
Possible Reasons for the Shift
- The impetus for the shift towards Harris isn't clear, but the abortion issue might play a role.
- Two Iowa districts, where abortion is a key issue, now lean Democratic.
Gender and Age Divide
- Women, especially those 65 and older, strongly favor Harris.
- This represents a significant shift as this demographic previously leaned Republican.