Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart The Market Is "Very Fragile" | Lance Roberts
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Dec 13, 2025 
Lance Roberts, a savvy portfolio manager at RealInvestmentAdvice, delves into the fragile state of current markets. He highlights concerns over record margin debt and unrealistic earnings forecasts that could trigger a correction by 2026. The conversation also touches on the impact of AI on productivity and job market pressures, alongside the Fed's 'not-QE' efforts and its economic projections. Roberts warns against complacency and emphasizes the need for active management and strategic positioning amidst potential market turbulence.
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Fed Bill Purchases vs. QE
- The Fed is buying short-term T-bills to ensure ample reserves, which it calls reserve management rather than QE.
- Markets treat any Fed bond buying as highly supportive regardless of technical classification.
AI Buildout: Productivity At Job Expense
- Lance highlights AI data-center buildout may raise productivity but pressure jobs and incomes, creating disinflationary forces.
- That dynamic can support corporate earnings while worsening employment outcomes for many workers.
Shelter And Oil Drive Disinflation
- Shelter and oil are major CPI inputs and both are showing disinflationary signs, which should pull headline inflation lower next year.
- This makes persistent high inflation less likely and supports potential Fed easing.