Jacobin Radio Confronting Capitalism: When Do Protests Become a Revolution?
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Feb 4, 2026 
Vivek Chibber, sociology professor and editor of Catalyst, provides historical and structural analysis of revolutions and political crises. He contrasts Iran’s 1979 upheaval with today’s protests. He explains why large mobilizations often fail, analyzes state capacity and military cohesion, and outlines scenarios from repression to possible long-term transformation.
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Waves Expose Eroding Regime Support
- Iran has seen escalating waves of mobilization since 2009 that reveal shrinking regime support.
- Repeated protests show deep popular discontent but not necessarily a collapsing state.
Two Conditions For Revolution
- Revolutions need both mass refusal and the rulers' inability to rule, following Lenin's formulation.
- Mobilization alone is often insufficient without a collapse or paralysis within state power.
State Fissures Often Decide Outcomes
- Successful revolutions usually follow fissures inside ruling blocks or state organs like the army.
- When those coercive organs remain intact, popular uprisings are normally crushed or contained.