Tommy and Ben discuss the drone strike in Jordan, pressure on Biden to retaliate against Iran, UN employees implicated in a Hamas attack, Nancy Pelosi's criticism of ceasefire activists, NATO member fears of Russia, Trump's tariffs on China, Kenyan court blocking police deployment to Haiti, French farmers protesting in Paris. They also talk about Iran's proxy groups, why Iran funds them, and US conventional wisdom on deterring Iran through military action.
Turkey's Parliament voted in favor of Sweden's bid to join NATO, strengthening NATO's presence in the region.
The US State Department announced a $23 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey to maintain relations and strengthen NATO's military capabilities.
Military leaders express concerns about Russia's aggression and the potential for a Russian invasion of a NATO country, leading to increased focus on defending member states.
Diplomatic efforts and addressing root causes of conflict are crucial in resolving the Iran conflict, rather than relying on deterrence and military action.
Deep dives
Sweden moves closer to joining NATO
Turkey's Parliament voted in favor of Sweden's bid to join NATO, leaving Hungary as the last holdout. The US has been a supporter of Sweden's bid, and the move is seen as a significant step towards strengthening NATO's presence in the region.
US sells F-16 fighter jets to Turkey
The US State Department announced a $23 billion sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. This comes after negotiations with Turkey, which had previously caused tensions due to Turkey's purchase of Russian air defense systems. The sale is seen as a way to maintain relations with Turkey and strengthen NATO's military capabilities.
Growing concerns over Russian aggression
Military leaders in the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden have expressed concerns about Russia's aggression and the potential for a Russian invasion of a NATO country. There are fears that Russia's actions in Ukraine may not stop there, leading to increased focus on defending NATO member states.
US shifts strategy for Ukraine
US officials have reportedly pivoted to a new strategy for Ukraine, focusing on bolstering Ukraine's military capabilities in order to fend off Russian advances. The strategy is said to prioritize strengthening Ukraine's long-term defense rather than pursuing a counter-surged or retaking territory.
Iran's Access of Resistance and its Role in Regional Security
Iran has established a network called the Access of Resistance, which comprises various groups from Yemen, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine. These groups include Shia militias like Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, as well as Sunni groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Iran supports these groups to create a strategic depth that can deter attacks on Iranian soil. The relationship between Iran and these groups varies, with closer ties to Hezbollah and more independence from the Houthis in Yemen. This network serves Iran's security interests, but also allows them to transcend limitations as a Persian or Shia nation in the region.
The Limitations of Deterrence in Dealing with Iran
Deterrence has not been an effective strategy in dealing with Iran. Past attempts at deterrence have failed, and military actions have only temporarily degraded Iran's capabilities. Diplomatic efforts, on the other hand, have shown promise in de-escalation. The US should explore diplomatic solutions and address the root causes of conflicts rather than relying on deterrence.
The Impact of US Withdrawal from the JCPOA and the Need for Diplomacy
The US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA) has had disastrous consequences. It has eroded trust in the US as a negotiating partner and pushed Iran to be more aggressive in the region and repressive domestically. The withdrawal also allowed Iran to advance its nuclear program and potentially pursue nuclear weapons. Diplomacy, not military action, is crucial in resolving the conflict with Iran and addressing the underlying issues.
Tommy and Ben talk about the drone strike by an Iranian-backed group on a US base in Jordan that killed three US service members, the pressure on Biden to retaliate against Iran directly, and the muddled politics of war. They also cover allegations that UN employees in Gaza participated in the October 7th Hamas attack, the International Court of Justice’s ruling about genocide charges against Israel, and Nancy Pelosi’s odd criticism of activists calling for a ceasefire. They also discuss NATO member fears about Russia, Trump floating major tariffs on China, a Kenyan court blocking the deployment of police to Haiti, and French farmers laying siege to Paris. Then, Tommy speaks with Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, about Iranian proxy groups, why Iran funds them, and the US conventional wisdom that Iran can only be deterred through military action.
For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode