Politics Now Why 2026 will be a 'pollster's picnic'
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Jan 1, 2026 Kos Samaras and Tony Barry from the Redbridge Group delve into the shifting political landscape ahead of 2026. They discuss the surge of One Nation and the Coalition's struggle with younger voters from Gen Z and millennials. The experts reveal how urban politics favor Labor, while generational divides complicate traditional party strategies. They explore economic concerns like cost of living and immigration, projecting major themes for the upcoming election that could redefine voter engagement.
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Government Performance Becomes The Test
- 2026 will be a 'pollster's picnic' because focus shifts from opposition to government performance.
- Rising interest rates and energy transition will make the government's management the central electoral test.
Younger Voters Fragment The Vote
- Younger voters (Millennials and Gen Z) are driving vote fragmentation and the rise of minor parties.
- About 70% of the 'other' vote comes from these younger cohorts, reshaping Australian politics.
Coalition Losing Ground With Young Voters
- The coalition is catastrophically uncompetitive with Gen Z and Millennials, polling in the high teens to mid-20s.
- Those cohorts will comprise nearly half the electorate by the next federal election, making competitiveness essential.