Financial expert Brian Belski joins hosts Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown to discuss the golden age of stockpicking, the outlook for financials, the relationship between interest rates and the stock market, and the new concept McDonald's is introducing to compete with Starbucks and Dunkin'. The conversation also covers contrarian thinking, embracing uncertainty in investing, market movements and tech rotations, and the impact of streaming platforms on exposing kids to older music.
Read more
AI Summary
Highlights
AI Chapters
Episode notes
auto_awesome
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
Companies have become more efficient at maximizing profits, leading to a trend of strong profit margins expected to continue.
Value stocks are likely to outperform growth stocks in 2024 as the rate cycle potentially ends.
Higher-than-average 10-year treasury yields are not necessarily negative for the stock market, as they often coincide with a strong economy and robust earnings growth.
Deep dives
Margins have not collapsed despite macro pressure
Despite macro pressures, profit margins have not collapsed. This challenges the bear case that profit margins are peaking and will revert to historical averages. The current environment suggests that companies have become more efficient at maximizing profits, benefiting from advancements in technology and AI. The trend of strong profit margins is expected to continue, with revenue growth and a strong economy driving higher profitability.
Value tends to outperform following the end of the rate cycle
Historical data shows that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks in the year following the end of a rate cycle. As interest rates rise, value stocks are favored due to their attractive valuations and potential for higher earnings growth. This suggests that the value trade could gain momentum in 2024 as the rate cycle potentially comes to an end.
Above-average 10-year treasury yields not necessarily bad for stock market
Contrary to popular belief, above-average 10-year treasury yields are not necessarily negative for the stock market. Data shows that when interest rates are higher than the three-year average, stock markets have performed well on average. This is because higher interest rates often coincide with a strong economy and robust earnings growth. The focus should not solely be on interest rates, as other factors like economic fundamentals and earnings play a significant role in driving market performance.
Positive outlook for 2024 with potential for high returns
Analysts, including those from reputable institutions, have a positive outlook for the stock market in 2024. Forecasts range from 4,200 to 5,100 for the S&P 500. The consensus is that earnings growth, a strong economy, and a potential broadening out of market participation could result in high returns for investors. The overall sentiment highlights the potential for a bull market in 2024, providing opportunities for profit and growth.
The Importance of Participating in Delusions
Charlie Munger expresses his skepticism towards participating in delusions, highlighting the difficulty of learning this lesson over decades of investing.
Taylor Swift as the Main Character of 2023
Taylor Swift's Time Person of the Year cover story explores her role as the main character of 2023, shaping the cultural conversations and becoming a common language for people around the world.
On episode 121 of The Compound and Friends, Michael Batnick and Downtown Josh Brown are joined by Brian Belski to discuss: the golden age of stockpicking, what happens if there's no rate cut in 2024, what the bears are missing, the outlook for financials, and much more!
Thanks to Dimensional Fund Advisors ETFs for sponsoring this episode. To learn more about the Dimensional difference, visit Dimensional.com.
Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Josh Brown are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
Wealthcast Media, an affiliate of Ritholtz Wealth Management, receives payment from various entities for advertisements in affiliated podcasts, blogs and emails. Inclusion of such advertisements does not constitute or imply endorsement, sponsorship or recommendation thereof, or any affiliation therewith, by the Content Creator or by Ritholtz Wealth Management or any of its employees. For additional advertisement disclaimers see here https://ritholtzwealth.com/advertising-disclaimers. Investments in securities involve the risk of loss. Any mention of a particular security and related performance data is not a recommendation to buy or sell that security. The information provided on this website (including any information that may be accessed through this website) is not directed at any investor or category of investors and is provided solely as general information.
Obviously nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. See our disclosures here: