US bank stocks decline after Moody's lowers ratings for small and midsize lenders. Tesla's new CFO has two jobs and many question marks. Report on Generative AI and the future of work in America. Overview of the impact of keeping rates higher for longer.
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Quick takeaways
According to a report by McKinsey Global Institute, 12 million workers in the United States are expected to transition into new lines of work by 2030 due to automation, COVID-19, and generative AI, requiring the workforce to acquire new skills to adapt.
CFRA's chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall, suggests that the current market phase may be a digestion period following significant market advances, with the historical seasonal pattern of market weakness in August and September potentially contributing to this phase.
Deep dives
Impact of AI on Future Jobs
According to a report by McKinsey Global Institute, 12 million workers in the United States are expected to transition into new lines of work by 2030 due to the impact of automation, COVID-19, and generative AI. Around 30% of the activities performed by US workers today could be automated by 2030. Despite job losses in some sectors, the report also highlights that there will be an increase in higher-paying and higher-skilled jobs, particularly in healthcare, STEM fields, and transportation. However, the workforce may need to acquire new skills to adapt to these changes.
Stock Market Digestion Phase
While a variety of factors, such as news on China, Italy, and US banks, have affected the stock market, CFRA's chief investment strategist, Sam Stovall, suggests that the current market phase may be a digestion period following significant market advances. The S&P 500 has risen by 28% since October 2020, with the NASDAQ up 46% through July 2021. Stovall also highlights that the historical seasonal pattern of market weakness in August and September may be a contributing factor. However, he notes that overall, earnings performance and positive long-term projections remain supportive.
Fed's Higher-for-Longer Stance
The Federal Reserve's indication of a prolonged period of maintaining higher interest rates is expected to have both positive and negative consequences. If the economy avoids recession, the higher rates could help achieve a soft landing by ensuring a decline in the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index. This, in turn, could lead to a shallower recession. However, if the economy does fall into a recession, the Federal Reserve may need to reverse course and cut interest rates. The ultimate impact will depend on various factors, including the timing and extent of rate hikes and cuts.
Market Recession Expectations
As economic indicators and inflation levels suggest a higher likelihood of recession, CFRA's analysis suggests that a recession may be possible, but could materialize in 2024 rather than in the near term, contrary to what many have been expecting. The historically reliable indicators of recession have not yet played out, indicating a possible divergence from past patterns. While the potential for recession exists, the timing and extent of its occurrence remains uncertain.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Analyst for US Regional Banks Herman Chan discusses US bank stocks declining on Tuesday after Moody’s Investors Service lowered its ratings for 10 small and midsize lenders. Bloomberg News Senior Technology Reporter Dana Hull talks about how Tesla’s new CFO now has two jobs and a lot of question marks. Kweilin Ellingrud, Director and Senior Partner at McKinsey Global Institute, shares the details on a report about Generative AI and the future of work in America. And we Drive to the Close with Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist at CFRA. Hosts: Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec. Producer: Paul Brennan.