Prof G Markets: Ozempic’s Market Impacts and Surging Bond Yields — with Downtown Josh Brown
Oct 9, 2023
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In this episode, Scott Galloway shares his thoughts on the market impacts of Ozempic's increasing popularity. Then, Josh Brown joins to discuss the surge in bond yields and its implications. They also explore the potential effects of Ozempic on industries like healthcare, fast food, and airlines.
Rising bond yields could pose a threat to industries such as fast food as weight loss drugs reduce demand for unhealthy products.
The demand for weight loss drugs like Ozempic is expected to grow, potentially leading to a decline in the fast food industry as obesity rates decrease.
Anthropic, an AI startup, is seeking new funding with a valuation between $20 and $30 billion, indicating its potential for significant growth in valuation.
Deep dives
High bond yields threaten fast food industry and other sectors
Bond yields have surged, indicating a sell-off in long-term US debt. This rise in yields comes as economic data shows growth in the job market and GDP, and the Federal Reserve signals higher interest rates to combat inflation. Analysts suggest that these rising yields could pose a threat to industries such as fast food, as weight loss drugs like Ozempic reduce demand for unhealthy products. Credit defaults swaps on major companies like McDonald's and Pepsi are being recommended as a way to protect against this potential risk.
The impact of Ozempic and weight loss drugs on the economy
Ozempic, a weight loss drug, is predicted to have significant effects on the economy. The drug has shown promise in helping individuals lose weight, reduce the risk of heart attacks and strokes, and decrease alcohol consumption. With 73% of Americans being overweight or obese, the demand for weight loss drugs like Ozempic is expected to grow, potentially leading to a decline in the fast food industry as obesity rates decrease. The economic impact of reducing obesity-related costs, estimated at $1.7 trillion per year in the US, could be significant.
The potential for investment in Anthropic and its valuation
Anthropic, an artificial intelligence startup, is seeking new funding with a valuation between $20 and $30 billion. This represents a significant increase from its previous valuation of $4 to $6 billion just seven months ago. The company's ability to raise capital and its projected revenue growth are generating interest from investors. Comparisons to other tech stocks and AI companies highlight the potential for growth in the valuation of Anthropic.
Challenges faced by Blue Apron and WeWork
Blue Apron, a meal kit delivery startup, has faced challenges with high customer acquisition costs and customer churn. Their revenue growth has been stagnant, and the company's IPO valuation has significantly decreased. Similarly, WeWork has struggled with missed interest payments and attempts to negotiate better terms with lenders. However, there is still potential value in WeWork's global brand and ability to restructure leases, making it a potential profitable venture for future owners.
Bond market fluctuations and the implications for the economy
The recent surge in US bond yields, particularly in long-term bonds, is seen as a reflection of the bond market adjusting to the changing economic landscape. Economic data, such as job openings and GDP growth, indicate positive economic performance. However, the impact of interest rate increases on the economy may take time to materialize due to factors like corporate balance sheet strength and the ability to refinance at low rates. The relationship between short-term and long-term yields, as well as credit spreads, can provide insights into market sentiment and potential risks.
This week on Prof G Markets, Scott shares his thoughts on which stocks and sectors could get a boost or take a hit from Ozempic’s increasing popularity. Then, Josh Brown, CEO of Ritholtz Wealth, joins the show to help break down why bond yields have surged the past few weeks.