Stocks Will Be Supported, Because If Not, All Hell Could Break Loose | Sven Henrich
Feb 4, 2024
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Technical analyst Sven Henrich predicts markets will rise higher despite skepticism, citing a failed bear market, sanguine market outlook, and concerns about fiscal deficit. The podcast explores assessments of the global economy, concerns regarding the growing national debt, and decoding the actions of Janet Yellen and Jay Powell. The future trajectory of the stock market, analyzing trend lines and the thin market, disconnected investors, market correction, wealth inequality, and the importance of health are also discussed.
The concentration of market cap in a few stocks has impacted diversification and risk management strategies.
Technical indicators suggest potential weakness in the market despite new all-time highs.
Expectations for a strong market rally in 2025 remain due to ongoing stimulus and intervention.
The growing wealth inequality raises concerns and requires a societal shift for long-term consequences.
Deep dives
Concerns about the thinning of the market and the dominance of a few stocks
The market has been dominated by a few stocks, resulting in a thinning of the market. This has created challenges for asset managers who are pressured to chase the market in order to keep up with index performance. The concentration of market cap in a few stocks has also impacted diversification and risk management strategies. The current market rally has been fueled by liquidity and the constant intervention of central banks. However, the lack of breadth and the weakening new highs and new lows indicate some underlying weakness in the market.
Technical indicators suggesting caution
Several technical indicators are pointing to a potential corrective pullback in the market. The value line geometric index (XVG) has shown resistance at a key trend line, and a negative divergence can be observed between the S&P and XVG. Additionally, the BPSBX signal chart and the stochastic oscillator suggest potential weakness in the market. These indicators indicate that despite new all-time highs in the market, there are underlying selling pressures that may lead to a correction.
The four-year cycle pattern and expectations for 2024
Historical analysis reveals a pattern in which the fifth year of a decade tends to be positive for markets, regardless of what happens in the fourth year. This pattern has held true consistently over the past century. Looking ahead, 2024 is expected to be a choppy year with intermittent new highs, while the latter part of the decade may see more trouble. Despite potential risks in 2024, the expectation is that central bank intervention and stimulus will lead to a strong market rally in 2025 and beyond, fueled by liquidity and fiscal impulses.
Unusual market behavior and concerns about the future
Several factors are contributing to unusual market behavior and raising concerns about the future. The dominance of a few stocks, the thinning of the market, and the concentration of market cap create challenges for asset managers and impact overall market breadth. Technical indicators suggest caution, with negative divergences and resistance at key trend lines. Additionally, the current market rally is driven by liquidity and central bank intervention, which raises questions about the sustainability of growth. Despite these concerns, expectations for a strong market rally in 2025 remain due to ongoing stimulus and intervention.
The unpredictability of the market signals
The speaker discusses the unusual behavior of market signals and how they have historically led to corrections. They highlight the current divergence between the indices making new all-time highs and the correction happening underneath the surface. They suggest that while a correction may be impending, it could also present a buying opportunity if the broader market becomes oversold.
The role of liquidity and market interventions
The speaker speculates on the impact of liquidity and market interventions on the market behavior. They mention the removal of BTFP and the reverse repo facility, which have contributed to the liquidity in the market. They suggest that these factors, along with the possibility of a market correction, could lead to heightened market volatility and potential intervention from central banks later in the year.
The concern about wealth inequality and the impact on society
The speaker expresses concern about the growing wealth inequality and its potential consequences. They discuss the concentration of wealth in the hands of a few and the impact it has on the majority of people. They highlight the disconnect between the market's performance and the economic realities faced by many, including unaffordable housing and limited opportunities for the younger generation. They suggest that addressing wealth inequality is a complex issue that requires a societal shift and a recognition of the long-term consequences.
The bears had every opportunity to break the markets over the past few years: From a global pandemic with a broad economic shut down, to a resulting 40 year high in inflation followed by the most aggressive rate cycle in history.
But the bears failed. The markets are back at all-time highs.
And likely to power a lot higher from here, predicts technical analyst Sven Henrich of NorthmanTrader.com, which he knows is an unpopular prediction among those skeptical of today's lofty market valuations. Sven himself doesn't like it!
Sven recently released a report titled 'The Cynics Guide To Markets', laying out the rationale for this sanguine market outlook, which I'll ask him to summarize for us in today's conversation.
Follow Sven at https://northmantrader.com/
WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com
#bullmarket #federalreserve #stocks
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