Trump’s Trade War Acceleration, $100M DeepSeek Ban Proposal & Grab-GoTo Merger Talks - E537

Shiyan Koh, Managing Partner of Hustle Fund, and Jeremy Au discussed:

1. Trump’s Economic Policies, Tariffs & Crypto Initiatives: They examined the economic impact of Trump’s 2025 return, including a 10% tariff hike on Chinese imports and new tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The administration also ended the de minimis exemption for low-cost e-commerce imports, affecting platforms like Temu and Shein, which had relied on duty-free shipping to US consumers. These changes disproportionately impacted lower-income Americans, despite cost-of-living concerns being a key election issue. Canada and Mexico secured a 30-day tariff delay, while Trump also launched Trump Coin and proposed a US Bitcoin reserve, signaling a pro-crypto stance that could draw US crypto firms back onshore.

2. DeepSeek & US-China AI Dynamics: They discussed the launch of DeepSeek-V3, a Chinese AI model matching GPT-4 but with lower training costs, which Jeremy called a “Sputnik moment”. The model’s success exposed the limits of US chip export bans, as Chinese engineers developed efficient AI training methods despite NVIDIA H100 restrictions. DeepSeek’s open-source availability via Hugging Face complicated regulatory enforcement, leading US Senator Josh Hawley to propose severe penalties, including 20-year prison terms for users and $100M fines for corporations. Meta’s AI lead, Yann LeCun, framed the issue as a debate between open-source and closed-source AI rather than a purely U.S.-China rivalry.

3. Grab-GoTo Potential Merger: They revisited ongoing Grab-GoTo (Gojek) merger talks, noting that Grab’s stronger financial position made it the likely acquirer. While Singapore’s regulators were expected to approve the deal, Indonesian authorities might impose conditions such as fare caps or job guarantees to prevent monopolistic practices. Reduced competition could push ride-hailing fares higher, with some Singaporeans already shifting back to public transport as Grab’s peak-hour prices reached $40. SoftBank, a major investor in both companies, had long pushed for consolidation, and with Gojek’s founding team no longer involved, negotiations had become more financially driven.

Jeremy and Shiyan also discussed Waymo’s self-driving taxis and their potential impact in Southeast Asia, Singapore’s emphasis on “future-proofing” careers versus the US culture of embracing disruption, and how US trade and AI restrictions are accelerating Chinese firms’ shift towards Southeast Asia and the EU.

Watch, listen or read the full insight at https://www.bravesea.com/blog/deepseek-and-us-china-ai-race

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