Episode 30: Finland in NATO, UGVs and ChatGPT for Intelligence Analysts with Marcel Plichta
Apr 7, 2023
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In this episode, Marcel Plichta, a PhD candidate and ex-DIA analyst, discusses Finland's potential membership in NATO, the state of UGVs, the competition in Africa, and the application of ChatGPT in intelligence analysis. They also touch on Wagner's presence in CAR, the West's influence in Africa, and Iranian drones in the Middle East.
Finland's NATO membership formalizes an existing partnership and raises concerns for Russia due to their long border and historical tensions.
Finland's strong military preparedness and cooperation with other Nordic countries contribute to its significance as a NATO ally, despite some equipment not meeting NATO standards.
The war in Ukraine and Finland's potential permanent stationing of NATO troops challenge the 1997 NATO-Russia founding agreement, adding complexity to Russia's decision-making regarding neighboring countries.
Deep dives
Finland's Joining NATO and Its Impact on Russia
Finland's decision to join NATO has raised concerns for Russia due to their long border and historical tensions. However, Finland has been a NATO partner for a while, participating in joint operations and exercises. Finland's high military expenditure also makes them a formidable ally. While Russia may be worried, Finland's NATO membership formalizes an existing partnership.
Finland's Military Preparedness and Nordic Cooperation
Finland's strong military preparedness and cooperation with other Nordic countries, including plans to combine air forces, contribute to its significance as a NATO ally. The acquisition of F-35s adds to its ability to enhance interoperability. While Finland's small arms may not meet NATO standards, it is not considered a major issue in comparison to other more critical military equipment.
NATO-Russia Relations and the Future of Troop Stationing
The 1997 NATO-Russia founding agreement, which prohibits permanent NATO troops in countries bordering Russia, is in question due to the war in Ukraine. Finland's potential permanent stationing of NATO troops may influence Russia's strategic calculations. The future of this agreement remains uncertain, and the situation in Ukraine adds complexity to Russia's decision-making regarding its neighboring countries.
Macron's plan to scale back military presence in Africa
Macron's decision to reduce France's military presence in Africa and co-locate forces with host nations is seen as a positive step. The move reflects a shift in focus from uncontested influence to genuine partnerships in Africa. However, some view it as a reaction to the prospect of losing influence rather than a sincere effort to address core issues faced by African countries.
African countries' ambivalence and selective engagement
African countries often have a nuanced approach to global issues, abstaining from, rather than necessarily opposing, certain resolutions or engagements. They prioritize regional and local concerns, prioritizing partnerships that bring economic benefits or address immediate security challenges. The recent low attendance of African leaders at a Zelensky-led African Union speech underscores the need to avoid generalizing African nations as a monolith and highlights personal stakes in making international alliances.
This week I caught up again with Marcel Plichta. Marcel is a member of the Grey Dynamics team, he is also a PhD candidate at St. Andrews and an Ex-DIA Analyst. We discussed the context of Finland's NATO membership, the state of UGVs, the Great power competition in Africa, and how generative AI models like ChatGPT could be applied to intelligence in practice.
