Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart Increasingly Strapped Consumers Are Tapping Out | David Hay
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Sep 7, 2025 In this discussion, David Hay, a veteran investor and chief investment officer of Evergreen Govcall, shares insights from his Haymaker sub stack. He examines troubling recession indicators and a cooling housing market. Hay highlights the effects of higher bond yields and persistent inflation on consumer behavior. The conversation spotlights the promising outlook for commodities, especially gold and silver. With rising unemployment shaking the labor market, David navigates the complexities of current economic trends and investment strategies, making it a must-listen!
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Labor Weakness Suggests Hidden Recession
- Labor market weakness is spreading beyond low-income workers into middle-income cohorts, hinting a broader slowdown.
- David Hay sees multiple recessionary indicators that suggest a recession may already be underway.
Payroll Revisions Signal Deterioration
- Payroll revisions and rising layoffs point to deteriorating job quality and potential downside surprises.
- Hay expects these labor revisions to worsen and possibly produce a downside shock in upcoming reports.
Job Openings Narrative Has Flipped
- JOLTS now shows more applicants than openings, reversing the earlier labor shortage narrative.
- Hay highlights that firings are rising too, which strengthens the recession signal.
