BlackRock’s Russ Koesterich Talks June Rate Cut Prediction
Feb 14, 2024
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BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich predicts a rate cut in June despite a stronger CPI report. He advises staying long on equities. The podcast discusses recent market sell-offs, inflation impact on investments, and opportunities in certain parts of the market. They highlight the resilience of the US economy and their preference for companies in the US tech, healthcare, and consumer discretionary sectors.
The Fed is expected to cut rates in June despite a hot CPI report, with inflation decelerating but certain areas remaining sticky.
BlackRock recommends a barbell investment strategy, favoring tech mega-caps and higher quality cyclicals in sectors like airlines, autos, consumer, and healthcare.
Deep dives
Inflation expectations and Fed rate cuts
The recent hot CPI report has led to a pushback in expectations for Fed rate cuts, with BlackRock holding on to June as the most likely month for the Fed to begin cutting. While inflation is decelerating, there are parts of it, particularly on the service side, that remain sticky and not sliding as quickly as anticipated. The narrative surrounding rate cuts has been tempered, with the expectation now being three to four cuts instead of the previously anticipated seven to eight cuts. Despite the slight setback, the stock market is still expected to perform well, especially for US equities, which are projected to have a decent year with potential gains of 6% to 8%.
Investment strategy and overweight on US equities
Given the current economic mix and the optimism about the Fed's rate-cutting timeline, BlackRock prefers a barbell investment strategy. This involves being long on quality mega-cap tech names that benefit from long-term secular themes, as well as long on higher quality cyclicals in sectors like airlines, autos, consumer, and healthcare, which are considered relatively cheap. In terms of bond allocations, BlackRock remains slightly underweight, particularly on the long end of the treasury curve, due to the expectation of rate cuts and market supply. While the US market is seen as the best option, BlackRock also has an overweight on Japanese equities.
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Discussion on Traders Pushing Back Fed Rate Cut Bets and Impact on Stock Market
BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Portfolio Manager Russ Koesterich discusses his expectation that the Fed will cut rates in June even after a hotter-than-expected January CPI report and says now is the time to stay long equities. He speaks with Bloomberg Surveillance hosts Jonathan Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz.