What will Trump's return mean for Ukraine, Gaza, and the economy?
Jan 10, 2025
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Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a noted global affairs author, delves into the consequences of Trump’s potential return to power. He discusses the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Key topics include internal GOP conflicts, the implications of tariffs on the economy, and the changing landscape of global power where U.S. dominance is challenged. Lieven highlights the need for nuanced diplomacy in navigating these complex geopolitical waters.
Trump's proposed tariffs may escalate trade tensions and disrupt international relations, reflecting his impulsive approach to foreign policy.
The podcast emphasizes potential continuity in U.S. foreign policy under Trump, despite promises for reduced militarism in Ukraine.
Concerns are raised about Trump's military strategy prioritizing high-tech weapons over urgent needs, undermining U.S. effectiveness in global conflicts.
Deep dives
Trump's Economic Threats
The episode discusses President-elect Trump's pattern of issuing controversial economic threats that create global tension. He has proposed imposing tariffs broadly, which would likely affect trade relations negatively, and has made claims about deporting millions of immigrants. Moreover, his outlandish suggestions, such as buying Greenland, highlight an impulsive approach to foreign policy that prioritizes American power without a clear philosophical basis. The implications of these threats raise serious concerns about potential escalations in trade and immigration conflicts.
Policy Continuities and Differences
A salient question explored is the extent to which Trump's administration will differ from Biden's, especially considering historical continuities in U.S. foreign policy. Both administrations share a common outlook on maintaining American dominance, though their methods may differ. Notably, there is skepticism about whether Trump’s promises for less militarism and more peace in Ukraine can be realized. The discussion also brings to light how entrenched interests from both parties continue to shape U.S. strategies, often irrespective of intended reforms.
China as a Central Focus
Trump's foreign policy appears centered around China, a viewpoint echoed throughout U.S. establishments, driven by varying interests from the military to corporate sectors. The conversation emphasizes Trump's complicated stance on China, acknowledging fears of Chinese encroachment on U.S. hegemony while also recognizing the financial ties American corporations have with China. As this tension escalates, the potential for misjudgments arising from aggressive posturing could lead the U.S. toward unwanted military engagements. The foundational question remains whether Trump's actions will fundamentally alter existing U.S.-China relations or simply perpetuate the status quo.
Impact on U.S. Military Policy
The podcast portrays a concerning picture of how the U.S. military-industrial complex influences the nation’s defense strategies, showing a preference for high-tech expenditures over essential military supplies. There’s a lack of capability to meet immediate military needs, like producing sufficient artillery shells, despite massive financial allocations. This predicament stems from a focus on high-tech weapons that may not correspond to the actual demands of modern warfare, revealing a fundamental flaw in military spending strategies. Given these issues, the ability of the U.S. to effectively address global conflicts, including those emerging from the Ukraine war, is called into question.
Future of U.S.-Middle East Relations
The discussion touches on the potential direction of U.S. policy in the Middle East under Trump, particularly concerning Israel. There is speculation that Trump's administration might more openly back aggressive actions against Iran, a scenario that could significantly worsen regional tensions. With Trump's notable alignment with certain hardline advisors, the episode suggests a risk of entrenching narratives that justify U.S. interventions. The dynamic tensions in the region may lead to unexpected shifts in alliances and could further complicate U.S. standing in global politics.
What will Donald Trump's second term as US president mean for the NATO-Russia proxy war in Ukraine and Israel's war on Gaza? How will his tariffs affect the economy? To discuss, political economist Radhika Desai is joined by Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
VIDEO: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNQztns8C9U
This is part of the show Geopolitical Economy Hour. You can watch other episodes of the program here: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLDAi0NdlN8hMl9DkPLikDDGccibhYHnDP
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