Geopolitical Economy Report What will Trump's return mean for Ukraine, Gaza, and the economy?
Jan 10, 2025
Anatol Lieven, director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and a noted global affairs author, delves into the consequences of Trump’s potential return to power. He discusses the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine and the Middle East. Key topics include internal GOP conflicts, the implications of tariffs on the economy, and the changing landscape of global power where U.S. dominance is challenged. Lieven highlights the need for nuanced diplomacy in navigating these complex geopolitical waters.
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Trump's Foreign Policy Impulses
- Trump may seek a Ukraine peace agreement to focus on China, but his Middle East policy could worsen the situation.
- Public support for interventions has decreased, influencing Trump's approach despite his impulsive nature.
Drivers of Trump's China Policy
- Trump's China policy is driven by populist promises, the perceived threat to American power, and CEO investments in China.
- This policy must also consider the threat some CEOs feel from China's rise.
US Establishment's United Front Against China
- The US establishment, backed by the military-industrial complex, is united against China to maintain global primacy.
- Trump can likely orchestrate a consensus on this, despite tactical differences with Biden's tough sanctions and tariffs.