Tom Stevenson, a contributing editor at the LRB and author, delves into the overlooked Tigray War in Ethiopia. He discusses Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s role in the brutal civil war despite his Nobel Peace Prize recognition. The conversation highlights the international indifference to the humanitarian crisis and the historical context shaped by colonial influences. Stevenson also explores Ethiopia's geopolitical ambitions for access to the Red Sea, revealing the complexities of external influences and local aspirations in a turbulent region.
The Tigray War's root causes lie in Ethiopia's complex political history and the struggle between centralized authority and decentralized federalism.
The conflict has garnered insufficient international attention, reflecting biases in media coverage influenced by geopolitical interests and humanitarian priorities.
Deep dives
Origins and Outbreak of the Tigray War
The war in Ethiopia's Tigray region erupted due to longstanding political tensions, particularly relating to the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government's authority. The Ethiopian government's narrative claimed that Tigrayan forces initiated hostilities by launching attacks on federal military outposts, framing their response as a necessary counterinsurgency. However, analysis from scholars suggests that this perspective oversimplifies the situation, highlighting evidence of a coordinated military strategy involving Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia that was likely devised well in advance of the conflict. Significant public proclamations in media leading up to the war indicate a premeditated campaign against Tigray, challenging the government's explanation of a spontaneous uprising.
Historical Context of Ethiopian Politics
Understanding the Tigray conflict requires analyzing Ethiopia's complex political history, characterized by a struggle between centralized authority and decentralized federalism. Following the fall of Emperor Haile Selassie and ensuing civil wars, the EPRDF coalition, largely dominated by the TPLF, shaped Ethiopia’s political landscape for nearly three decades. After significant reforms initiated by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in 2018, regional tensions resurfaced, culminating in the 2020 outbreak of war as various factions sought control and influence in a shifting political terrain. The historical legacies of colonialism, particularly Italian occupation, have contributed to regional disparities and grievances that still resonate within contemporary Ethiopian politics.
International Response and Attention
The Tigray war has drawn surprisingly little international attention compared to its scale and severity, with many experts attributing this to a hierarchy of concern influenced by geopolitical interests. While the conflict gained limited visibility during its height, it coincided with other international crises, such as the war in Ukraine, leading to a neglect of the atrocities occurring in Tigray. The disparity in media focus reflects underlying biases related to race and geography, suggesting that certain conflicts are deemed more worthy of concern than others. This indifference has significant implications for humanitarian aid and intervention, revealing a troubling trend in how global atrocities are prioritized or ignored.
Current Situation and Future Outlook
The aftermath of the Tigray war remains dire, with ongoing humanitarian crises including food insecurity and violence, despite a peace agreement reached in 2022. The conflict has left deep scars on the region, including extensive loss of life, displacement, and a damaged agricultural system, which has yet to recover fully. Current Ethiopian governance under Abiy Ahmed shows signs of consolidation, but tensions persist with various ethnic groups and potential for future conflict. The broader implications of regional instability, combined with Abiy’s aggressive geopolitical ambitions, particularly for access to Red Sea ports, continue to suggest a complex and volatile future for Ethiopia and its neighbors.
Ethiopia is one of the world’s most populous countries, and yet the 2020-22 Tigray War and ongoing suffering in the region has been largely ignored by the world at large. Tom Stevenson joins the podcast to break down the history of the conflict, and explore why Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel laureate, has come to preside over such a brutal civil war. He also considers Abiy’s future intentions, both within and beyond his country’s borders.