Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing implications for Commodities under a Red Wave
Jul 19, 2024
auto_awesome
The podcast discusses the implications of a potential Red Wave in the 2024 US election on commodities, highlighting gold as a winner. It explores factors like fiscal debt, trade policies, and bullish prospects for gold under GOP control. Topics include strategies for US oil production growth, deficit reduction, and implications for agricultural markets and base metals under different political scenarios.
Under a Red Wave, gold and silver demand may increase due to inflation and geopolitical tensions.
GOP control could lead to extended tax cuts, deficits, and a shift towards gold as an inflation hedge.
Deep dives
Implications of a Red Wave Scenario on Gold and Silver Markets
Under a red wave scenario, factors such as inflation, tariffs on imports, and increased geopolitical tensions could magnify the demand for gold and silver. The potential executive pressure on the Fed and an aggressive foreign policy stance on China may further boost demand for gold. With a Republican majority in Congress, there could be an extension of Trump's tax cuts, leading to increased deficits and a shift towards gold as a hedge amid rising inflation concerns.
Policy Impacts on US Oil Production and Prices
In a potential second Trump administration, plans to increase US oil production by three million barrels per day could impact oil prices and inflation expectations. Policies such as deregulation and expanding energy infrastructure aim to reduce oil prices. However, achieving the three-million-barrel target relies on accelerated drilling in the U.S., including opening new areas for exploration like the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska.
Agricultural Market Outlook under a Red Wave Scenario
In the agricultural markets, a red wave scenario could lead to emboldened tariffing agendas, especially on Chinese imports. Despite weak agricultural prices due to trade war impacts and renewed trade relations with Brazil, China retains negotiation leverage. The influence of tariffs on Chinese imports and historical purchasing trends highlight potential market fluctuations and the importance of ongoing trade dynamics.
The events of the past few weeks, President Biden’s poor debate performance, followed by Saturday’s assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, have led to a clear shift in the tone of the elections and increased the probability for a sizable Red Wave. Given the range of scenarios that could play out, gold stands out as a winner. The first edition of our Commodities 2024 US Elections Watch focused on implications for the commodities under a split Congress outcome, now we assess what GOP control of all Washington levers of power could mean for the sector.
Speakers:
Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research
Tracey Allen, Head of Agricultural Commodities Research
Gregory Shearer, Head of Base and Precious Metal Research