The Science of Conspiracy: The 211th Evolutionary Lens with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying
Feb 7, 2024
02:17:11
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Evolutionary biologists Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying discuss various interesting topics in this podcast including seasonality, overfitting, the science behind dietary advice, risks of novel technologies, and the tragic situation of orcas trapped in sea ice.
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Quick takeaways
Be cautious when exploring collusion and conspiracy theories, as it can lead to shoehorning or straight jacketing observations to fit a preconceived narrative.
Limited hangouts provide a sanitized version of the truth, making it difficult to determine the full extent of their influence and uncover the complete truth.
Avoid the trap of overfitting models to fit preconceived notions, which prevents critical analysis and openness to alternative perspectives.
Recognize the diversity and complexity within systems, as they often consist of multiple factions with conflicting interests rather than a monolithic conspiracy.
Deep dives
Shoehorning and Straight Jacketing
In the context of collusion or conspiracy theories, people often fall into the trap of shoehorning or straight jacketing their observations to fit into a preconceived narrative. This happens when individuals force the evidence to support their model, ignoring other possibilities. It is essential to be cautious when exploring collusion as it requires relaxing the standards of logic and considering more creative connections between events. However, conclusions reached in this context should be treated with skepticism due to the risk of overfitting the evidence to fit a desired outcome. It is important to strike a balance between openness and critical thinking when evaluating collusion theories.
Limited Hangouts and Unfalsifiability
Another concept to consider is limited hangouts, where a sanitized version of the truth is provided, containing elements of the truth fused with nonsense or incomplete information. This technique keeps the real explosive information hidden and prevents a complete resolution or understanding of what actually happened. While limited hangouts do exist, it is challenging to determine the extent of their influence or the full truth behind them. Thus, maintaining a level of skepticism is crucial and recognizing that limited hangouts may always leave some hidden aspects of the truth.
Models and Collusion: A Sloppy Way of Thinking
Many people fall into the trap of overfitting a model to fit their preconceived notions, resulting in a confirmation bias and an inability to consider alternative perspectives. This can be seen in the way some individuals dismiss contradictory information by labeling it as a 'limited hangout' or 'propaganda.' By doing so, they create a model that cannot be falsified, preventing them from critically analyzing new evidence. In reality, the world is complex, and it's essential to continually evaluate our models and remain open to different viewpoints in order to gain a more accurate understanding of the truth.
The Complexity and Collusion Within Systems
The notion of a monolithic system or conspiracy is oversimplified. Complex systems are comprised of multiple factions that may have conflicting interests. This applies not only to societal systems but also to corporate entities. For instance, the case of Joe Rogan's deal with Spotify demonstrates how different entities within the system may compete with each other, resulting in conflicting narratives and perspectives. It's important to recognize the diversity and complexity within systems rather than assuming a singular unified agenda.
Questioning Narratives and Evaluating Evidence
When evaluating information and narratives, it's crucial to maintain a skeptical and critical mindset. The example of a flawed study on red meat consumption highlights the importance of questioning scientific claims and examining the underlying methods and assumptions. It is not simply a matter of blindly accepting the conclusions presented, but rather analyzing the evidence, understanding the potential biases, and considering the long-term consequences. A cautious approach to new claims, especially those that challenge established beliefs, allows for a more nuanced and accurate understanding of complex issues.
The Tragic Situation of Orcas Trapped in Sea Ice
A pod of orcas is trapped in sea ice off northern Japan, including several calves. The lack of a clear plan and the potentially deadly conditions raise concerns for their survival. The incident raises evolutionary questions as to whether there is a specific predisposition among orcas to be cautious of ice, and the potential role of grandmothers in transmitting knowledge and ensuring the survival of the species. The fate of the trapped orcas is uncertain, but the hope is that they find a way to escape and survive.
Controversy Surrounding the EAT-Lancet Commission's Dietary Recommendations
The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, and Health published dietary advice in 2019 promoting a healthy reference diet based on vegetables, fruits, whole grains, legumes, nuts, unsaturated oils, and limited red meat consumption. However, a recent paper by an Irish professor questions the validity and transparency of the data and assumptions used, particularly regarding the recommended exclusion of red meat. The letter criticizes the misleading information influencing global dietary guidelines and emphasizes the nutritional benefits of red meat. The controversy highlights the importance of scrutinizing scientific research and ensuring accurate information informs dietary recommendations.
In this 211th in a series of live discussions with Bret Weinstein and Heather Heying (both PhDs in Biology), we talk about the state of the world through an evolutionary lens.
In this episode, we discuss Winter and seasonality, before a longer discussion of overfitting, shoe-horning, and straight-jacketing. How do models, collusion, and Occam’s Razor contribute to how we understand the world? Why are generalists better situated to interpret complexity than are specialists? Then: how good is the science behind the major paper out of The Lancet that assures us that we should not be eating red meat? Answer: not very. Finally, we discuss the orcas who were trapped in sea ice off of Japan, and what it means to be an orca (including mention of the grandmother hypothesis).
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Mentioned in this episode:
The Emperor of Scent by Chandler Burr (about Luca Turin): https://www.amazon.com/Emperor-Scent-Story-Perfume-Obsession/dp/0375759816
Willett et al 2019. Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT–Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems. Lancet 393, 447–492: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2818%2931788-4
Stanton 2024. Unacceptable use of substandard metrics in policy decisions which mandate large reductions in animal-source foods. Npj Science of Food 8(10): https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-024-00249-y
Stanton et al 2022. 36-fold higher estimate of deaths attributable to red meat intake in GBD 2019: is this reliable?. The Lancet, 399(10332), pp.e23-e26.: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00311-7/fulltext
