Real Vision: Finance & Investing Year-End Macro Wrap | Macro Mondays: December 22, 2025
10 snips
Dec 22, 2025 
Andreas Steno Larsen, co-founder of Steno Research, joins Mikkel Rosenvold to analyze a tumultuous year in global markets. They discuss the correlation between Bitcoin cycles and halvings, and review key takeaways from 2025, including market performances from Korea and Spain. With a focus on AI and automation investments, they highlight prospects in robotics and the implications of drones in defense. Caution about a potential funding dip for AI in 2026 wraps up their insightful predictions for the future.
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Bitcoin Halving Signal May Fade
- Bitcoin's historical cycle may tie to the halving but could weaken as it becomes a macro asset.
- Andreas warns the halving-driven pattern may not persist as more institutional investors enter.
Live Call On DeepSeek That Predicted AI CapEx
- Andreas recalls recording live on the morning of the DeepSeek sell-off and concluding it would accelerate AI capex.
- He cites a small Danish municipality buying NVIDIA racks as proof of broad AI commoditization.
Cyclical Bounce Drove Global Outperformance
- Europe outperformed in 2025 due to cyclicals and bank strength, aided by a weaker dollar.
- Andreas expects another pro-cyclical year with steeper curves and multiple rate cuts in 2026.