Is "The Trump Effect" Already Securing the Border?
Nov 16, 2024
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Todd Bensman, an immigration expert and author, and Mark Halperin, a seasoned political reporter, dive deep into the transformative 'Trump Effect' on U.S. border security. Bensman highlights a surprising decline in new arrivals and discusses strategies like reinstating the 'Remain in Mexico' policy. Halperin sheds light on the likelihood of successful confirmations for Trump's Cabinet picks amid controversial dynamics. The conversation uncovers shifting political tides and the challenges facing the Democratic Party following recent electoral setbacks.
The 'Trump Effect' highlights how political rhetoric can deter potential migrants, leading to decreased border crossings and self-deportation.
Internal challenges within the Democrat Party may require centrist leadership to reconnect with moderate voters and rejuvenate engagement.
Deep dives
The Impact of Rhetoric on Immigration Patterns
The concept of the 'Trump Effect' suggests that political rhetoric can significantly influence immigration behavior. During his 2016 campaign, Trump's strong stance against illegal immigration led to a drastic decrease in border crossings, as many potential migrants chose to stay home rather than risk deportation. Current immigration expert Todd Bensman posits that a similar phenomenon may be occurring once again, as individuals observe tough rhetoric about deportations and border security. This change in perception appears to have contributed to a reduction in the anticipated surges of migration observed in recent years.
Self-Deportation as a Viable Option
The discussion highlights the possibility of self-deportation among undocumented immigrants as a response to increasing threats of deportation. Some migrants may choose to return to their countries of origin if provided with incentives, such as the promise of a pathway to legal residency. Despite this potential, it is acknowledged that widespread self-deportation is unlikely. The success of such measures depends significantly on the credibility of enforced policies and the actions that follow political rhetoric.
Challenges for the Democrat Party
The Democrat Party is currently facing internal challenges, largely due to a sense of disengagement among its base after the recent elections. Many supporters are experiencing confusion and resentment regarding the party’s direction, leading to decreased activism and organization. The situation is compounded by the perception that the party has moved too far left, alienating moderate voters, which has created a demand for leadership capable of bridging this divide. Discussions among party elders suggest the need for a more centrist figure to rally the party back to its roots and connect with a broader electorate.
The Future of Cabinet Confirmations
The political landscape is shifting as Donald Trump navigates cabinet nominations amidst significant controversy. Analysts argue that the resistance to some nominees may not be as robust as the media portrays, as Republican senators might feel pressured to support Trump’s choices due to their constituencies' sentiments. If these picks can resonate with the base, the chances of confirmation could improve, despite the likelihood of political scrutiny. Trump's history of fighting for his nominees suggests he may aggressively advocate for his preferences, ensuring a high-stakes battle for confirmation in the Senate.
Almost overnight, America has gone from a pile of cash to loot, to a real country with a real border. Without Trump even taking office, caravans are breaking up and new arrivals are declining. Todd Bensman explains how the Trump administration can follow up on these initial developments to secure the country long-term. Mark Halperin explains why Donald Trump's Cabinet picks are more likely to be confirmed than many people think. Plus, Charlie responds to voicemails from subscribers.