Effectively Wild Episode 1222: Testing the Balls and Beating the Bookies
May 26, 2018
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Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Red Sox designating Hanley Ramirez, comparing Mookie Betts to Barry Bonds, a listener's real-world use of tOPS+, intentional plays in baseball, and the impact of baseballs on the home run surge. They also discuss betting on baseball and the historical aspects and future of baseball betting.
Changes in the baseball, including a decrease in air resistance, have contributed to the increase in home runs in MLB.
The complex nature of baseball, including factors like player aging patterns and the composition of the league, can shape eras of the game.
Deep dives
The MLB report on the differences in baseballs
has confirmed that the ball is indeed different and is responsible for the increase in home runs. The report, which was conducted by scientists chaired by Alan Nathan, found that the decrease in air resistance is the main factor behind the increase in home runs. The report also suggested that changes in the surface roughness of the baseball and the center of gravity may contribute to the decrease in air resistance. MLB has made several recommendations to monitor and standardize the baseballs going forward, including monitoring the temperature and humidity in which the balls are stored, reviewing the specifications of the balls, conducting aerodynamic testing, and ensuring consistent application of the mud rubbed on the balls. The report provides a greater understanding of the changes in the ball and opens the door for MLB to make informed decisions about the future of the baseball and the desired level of home run rates in the game.
The Impact of Baseball Equipment on Home Runs
The podcast episode discusses the impact of baseball equipment, particularly the ball, on the number of home runs hit in the past. It explores the theory that the increase in home runs during the so-called steroid era may not have been solely due to player enhancement, but also the result of changes in ball characteristics. The podcast highlights the significance of the coefficient of restitution (bounciness) of the baseball as a determining factor for home runs and suggests that fluctuations in ball characteristics could have played a role in shaping the game.
The Influence of Other Factors on Home Runs
The podcast delves into other factors that could have contributed to the increase in home runs during specific eras. It mentions the aging patterns of players and the composition of the league as potential influences. It also addresses the complex nature of the game, noting that multiple factors, such as changing mound heights, new training methods, and talent influx from certain regions, could shape any given era of baseball.
Challenges in Baseball Betting and the Decline of Margins
The podcast touches on the challenges of baseball betting and the decline in profitability over the years. It highlights the diminishing edge that bettors faced as sportsbooks became more sophisticated and efficient in setting lines. The introduction of advanced statistics and information, such as park factors and pitch FX data, did not provide enough of an advantage to overcome the increasing efficiency of betting markets. The episode mentions that the sports betting landscape has become more difficult with time, making it challenging for bettors to continue generating significant profits.
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the Red Sox designating Hanley Ramirez for assignment, what Mookie Betts and Barry Bonds have in common, Shohei Ohtani‘s “workload management,” Bartolo Colon’s 45th birthday, a John Jaso appearance at the Trop, a listener’s real-world use of tOPS+, and two more examples of players intentionally performing typically detrimental […]
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