The David Lin Report Market Collapse From Government Shutdown? What You Need To Know | Bob Elliott
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Oct 9, 2025 Bob Elliott, CEO and CIO of Unlimited, dives into the dynamics of the US economy, highlighting its slowdown amid rising stock markets driven by AI enthusiasm. He discusses the limited impact of government shutdowns on GDP, the inflationary effects of tariffs, and surprising asset performances in 2025, especially gold. Elliott suggests bonds could outperform in 2026, despite weak labor signals, and explains how mega-cap companies influence indices. He also emphasizes the importance of tactical portfolio positioning in a late-cycle environment.
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Markets Look Past Short-Term GDP Hits
- Equity markets are forward-looking and price in what 2026 looks like rather than short-term quarterly bumps.
- Bob Elliott warns market focus is on next year, not a few-week GDP drag from a shutdown.
Don't Overreact To Short Shutdowns
- Avoid overreacting to short government shutdowns because payback and smoothing usually limit long-term damage.
- Watch for prolonged shutdowns only if they last months and start squeezing workers or beneficiaries.
Policy Is Quietly Dragging Growth
- U.S. policy is increasingly growth negative due to reduced immigration and tariff implementation frictions.
- Bob Elliott expects tariff-related drags to peak around Q1 2026 and weigh on growth.