RiskReversal Pod The Great Wall of Worry: US-China Trade War Risks
Jun 4, 2025
Trade negotiations and rising tariffs between the U.S. and China take center stage, highlighting their effects on the market. The hosts dive into the implications of national debt and inflation from ongoing trade tensions. They discuss the performance of major tech stocks like CrowdStrike and Apple, analyzing their valuations amid market uncertainty. With insights on economic indicators, such as non-farm payrolls and CapEx spending, the conversation wraps up with predictions on how upcoming reports might sway market trends.
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US Debt Concerns and GDP Ratio
- The US debt concern is more about its ratio to GDP than the absolute number.
- Growing the economy could mitigate debt fears, but unchecked deficit spending worries many including Elon Musk.
Complexity of US-China Trade Talks
- Trade negotiations with China are complex due to differing economic models and consumption patterns.
- Tariffs and trade talks heavily impact business CapEx, R&D, and hiring, causing some economic seizure.
US Trade Deficit Reality
- US trade deficits with countries like China stem mainly from higher US consumption, not being ripped off.
- America's large GDP share and population margin make significant ripoffs unlikely.