Global Research Unlocked US labor market edition
Nov 24, 2025
Join Stephen Juno, a US economist, as he analyzes the recent September labor market data, highlighting modest job gains and rising participation rates. Mark Cabana, Head of US Rate Strategy, shares market positioning insights, advocating for a mix of hawkish and dovish strategies in response to Fed policies. FX strategist Alex Cohen discusses dollar fluctuations influenced by rates and equities, noting a potential return of the dollar smile. The trio dives into implications for the economy and upcoming Fed decisions.
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Jobs Gain Yet Unemployment Rises
- The September jobs report showed continued job gains but a rise in unemployment, signaling mixed labour-market health.
- Stephen Juno notes participation picked up, so the unemployment tick partly reflects improved labor supply rather than pure weakness.
Wage Growth Supports Consumption
- Real wages improved as wage inflation (3.8% y/y) outpaced headline inflation by about 1 percentage point.
- Stephen Juno argues this positive income effect, plus wealth gains, should support consumption absent rising layoffs.
Watch Claims First, Use Alternatives As A Basket
- Prioritise initial and continuing jobless claims as the best timely indicators for layoffs and labor-market flows.
- Use ADP and other alternative datasets as a smoothed basket rather than over-interpreting month-to-month noise.