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Hiring Pause, Not Firing Yet
- Companies are pausing hiring due to uncertainty but are not firing yet.
- Seasonal, weather, and calendar factors suggest the upcoming jobs report will show lower payroll numbers.
Tariffs Pose Recession Risk
- The economy currently is fine but faces significant headwinds unless tariffs are notably reduced.
- A major tariff reduction on China is crucial to avoid recession risks from trade disruptions.
Dollar's Reserve Role Under Scrutiny
- Investor concern about the U.S. losing reserve currency status is rising, but this is a gradual, long-term shift.
- The dollar remains dominant today due to lack of better alternatives.