James Bullard, former Fed Reserve President and current Dean at Purdue, predicts key moves by the Fed while reflecting on the challenges of balancing market expectations. Henrietta Treyz from Veda Partners discusses Kamala Harris's promising rise in swing state polls, hinting at electoral shifts. Dan Ives of Wedbush provides insights into Microsoft’s earnings, underscoring AI's growing role in the tech sector. The conversation delves into the complexities of inflation management and strategic economic policy balancing.
The anticipated growth in AI monetization is set to significantly influence Microsoft's financial performance starting January 2025, reflecting broader tech sector trends.
AMD's strategic entry into the AI market indicates potential disruptions in competition with Nvidia, impacting the landscape of AI technologies and partnerships.
Deep dives
Impact of AI on Cloud Revenue
The conversation addresses the disappointing cloud revenue numbers, highlighting the anticipated shift in financial performance anticipated from advancements in AI technologies. The discussion emphasizes that AI monetization is expected to significantly contribute to revenue growth starting in January, with projections for the latter half of fiscal 2025 showing improvement. This shift underscores the importance of AI not only for Microsoft but for the broader tech sector, given the reliance on cloud services. Investors expressed robust confidence in Microsoft's future prospects following the insights shared during the earnings call.
AMD's Rising Competition in AI
AMD's entry into the AI market is discussed as a potential game changer as it begins to compete more aggressively with Nvidia. Statements from AMD’s leadership indicate a growing confidence and strategy in capturing market share within the AI sector, highlighting sentiments that they are now entering the AI arena. This competitive dynamic suggests that Microsoft's partnerships in AI with firms like AMD might lead to a more diverse marketplace. The narrative indicates that AMD is positioning itself as a formidable contender alongside established giants.
The Significance of Supply Chain Policies
Recent announcements regarding exemptions for chip equipment exporters in Japan, the Netherlands, and South Korea from U.S. export restrictions are crucial to the ongoing growth in AI technologies. These measures indicate a proactive approach to maintaining a stable supply chain necessary for the tech industry's evolution. The dialogue reflects an understanding that geopolitics and trade policies can significantly impact advancements in AI and other technologies. The exemption is seen as a catalyst for ensuring that major players can continue to innovate without disruption.
Consumer Demand and Apple’s Future
Apple's upcoming product launches, specifically the iPhone 16, are anticipated to drive significant consumer demand, even as concerns around the incorporation of AI features persist. Market analysis indicates that projected demand has increased, suggesting a robust interest in Apple’s future products, irrespective of current AI capabilities. The focus remains on the overall product ecosystem and the multitude of apps that are expected to emerge that are driven by AI. Analysts suggest that once the AI features take precedence, this could further solidify Apple's position in the market during a new technological cycle.
- James Bullard, Former Fed Reserve President, Dean of the Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. School of Business at Purdue University - Henrietta Treyz, Veda Partners Director Economic Policy Research - Dan Ives, Wedbush Senior Equity Analyst
Former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard looks ahead to the July Fed decision and Chair Powell’s news conference. Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners weighs in on the newest Bloomberg-Morning Consult Poll and what’s next for both the Harris and Trump presidential campaigns. Dan Ives of WedBush reacts to Microsoft earnings.