Mike's Minute: I'm confident for 2026

It probably came out on the wrong day to get the coverage it deserved, but one of the last pieces in the economic turnaround told us we are basically there. 

Consumer confidence is back, up six points to 98. It needs to be 100 or more for expansion, but it’s the highest figure since June and backs the business confidence, which last week was up a lot. 

Business comes first because they see the turnaround on sales. The spending numbers back that up because they are pretty real time and then you get confidence as a follow up, given although we are spending, some may not want to admit it may still feel like they are in a bit of a funk. 

But add it all together and the conclusion is inescapable. 

You can also add the ASB housing numbers if you want. Confidence in the housing market is at a 15-year high. 

Why? Because it's almost perfect – good supply, cheap money, but most importantly we seemed to have crossed the psychological barrier and given ourselves permission to start to feel good again. 

The irony is the growth that drives all this might just have been there all along. We get the Q3 GDP number later this month with Infometrics suggesting it is 0.9%. 

Add that to the rest of the year and we are well above the growth line. Not that a lot of the commentary has backed that up. 

Which is not to say some still do it tough. It's not to say it's the boom times. It's just to say there comes a point where the facts, figures and evidence can no longer be denied. 

Here is my next prediction: as a result of all this, 2026 might well be a very good year indeed. 

That's based on the idea that economies are about psychologies. Yes, they are about fundamentals but if the fundamentals are in place, then the next thing you look for is mood. 

And given the mood has been so repressed, when we decide to take the handbrake off there might just be no stopping us. 

As I said last week don't underestimate the Reserve Bank and the finality of their cut. They said this was it, they they've done their job, we are free to go and enjoy our lives. For those waiting and dilly-dallying, that was what they were waiting for. 

The next confidence survey will be over 100 and that will be the start of a trend for the year ahead. 

Remember where you heard it first. 

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