Radio War Nerd EP 486 — Syria War 2: Return of the Jihadis, feat. Joshua Landis
Dec 3, 2024
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In this discussion, Joshua Landis, an expert on Syria and head of the Middle East Studies Center, dives deep into the recent resurgence of rebel forces in Syria. He explains the evolving dynamics of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and their implications for the Syrian conflict. The conversation also touches on Kurdish struggles amidst competing interests and the geopolitical intrigues involving Russia, Turkey, and Israel. Landis highlights the refugee crisis and unpredictable future, painting a complex picture of Syria's ongoing chaos.
The recent rebel offensive in Aleppo has revealed significant weaknesses in the Syrian army's morale and troop strength amid ongoing conflicts.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham's rebranding efforts under Abu Muhammad al-Jolani are aimed at local acceptance while retaining elements of extremist ideology.
The evolving geopolitical landscape, influenced by U.S. actions and regional powers, complicates support for rebel factions and impacts Syria's future stability.
Deep dives
The Impact of the Ongoing Conflict in Syria
The recent developments in Syria highlight a significant shift in power dynamics, particularly as rebel groups have launched a successful offensive leading to the capture of Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city. This rapid advance by the rebels has exposed the weaknesses within the Syrian army, which has seen a decline in both morale and troop strength due to years of conflict and disillusionment among its ranks. Factors contributing to this situation include a lack of external support, particularly from Hezbollah and Iran, and the debilitating effects of ongoing sanctions on the Syrian economy. Consequently, many Syrians have lost faith in the governing regime, leading to a hesitance to fight for a government that has failed to provide stability and basic services.
Rebel Groups and Their Sponsors
The rebel faction Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), once affiliated with Al-Qaeda, has transformed under the leadership of Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, seeking to distance itself from its militant past in order to gain local and international acceptance. This strategy includes outreach to local Christians and efforts to portray HTS as a stabilizing force in Syria. However, despite their rebranding, elements of the group's extremist ideology persist, leading to tensions with various minority groups, including Alawites, who remain wary of HTS intentions. As HTS becomes stronger, their relationship with Turkey plays a crucial role, as they continue to receive support and resources necessary for their military operations in the region.
The Syrian Army's Decline and Challenges Ahead
The capacity of the Syrian army to counter the recent rebel advances appears severely compromised, with estimates suggesting the effective fighting force is reduced to about 40,000 to 50,000 personnel. Economic challenges, exacerbated by sanctions and corruption, have led to a demoralized military that struggles to maintain loyalty among its troops. Many soldiers are unmotivated to fight for a regime that has failed to deliver on promises of stability and better living conditions post-civil war, leaving the army vulnerable to further losses. This declining morale and lack of support reflect a broader sentiment of hopelessness among Syrians, which poses serious hurdles for any attempts to regain control over territories lost to rebel factions.
The Regional Geopolitical Landscape
The ongoing conflict has far-reaching implications for regional geopolitics, particularly concerning the roles of key actors such as Israel, Russia, and the United States. As Israel has historically preferred a weakened Syrian state to maintain its security, the emergence of a potentially hostile Sunni Islamist government poses a new set of challenges. Meanwhile, Russia's focus has shifted to its interests in Ukraine, leading to decreased military support for Assad, which has contributed to the Syrian regime's vulnerabilities. Turkey's strategic maneuvers aim to reassert control in the region and manage refugee flows, further complicating the already intricate web of alliances and conflicts.
Implications for the U.S. and Western Allies
The U.S. administration's response to the intensifying conflict reflects a balancing act, where they publicly distance themselves from Assad while also grappling with the complexities of supporting rebel groups like HTS, which are officially designated as terrorist organizations. Pressure to lift sanctions on Syria could arise if HTS becomes the de facto ruling authority, forcing the U.S. to reconsider its stance on these factions. As the situation evolves, Western nations must navigate the precarious landscape without exacerbating tension, while also evaluating the long-term ambitions of Turkey and its implications for NATO interests. This intricate interplay of motivations and strategies will shape the future of U.S. involvement and the wider regional order.