It’s bad news all round for Labour and the Tories. An MRP poll out today forecasts that if an election were held tomorrow, Labour would not only lose its majority, but fall behind Reform to become the second-largest party. The Conservatives would be reduced to a mere 46 seats, placing them fourth behind the Lib Dems.

But that’s just the beginning of their collective woes. On the Labour side – despite Keir Starmer’s charm offensive and ongoing talks with Labour MPs about potential changes to welfare policy – the number of rebels appears to be growing. The feeling increasingly is that someone might have to go, and calls for ‘regime change’ splash the Times. Is time up for Morgan McSweeney?

On the other side of the House, the Tories are in disarray, as Tim Shipman reports in The Spectator this week. In his scoop-filled piece, he writes: David Cameron thinks Robert Jenrick should be the next Tory leader, strategists fear the best they can hope for is to salvage 80 seats, and the blond bombshell Boris Johnson has a five-point plan for his return. Are the Tories toast?

James Heale speaks to Michael Gove and Tim Shipman.

Produced by Oscar Edmondson and Megan McElroy.

Two Facts and a Lie with PopSci Editor-in-Chief Joe Brown