Losing the Long Game by Philip H. Gordon

The episode centers on a discussion of Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East by Philip H. Gordon, a book selected by Stably. The hosts examine Gordon’s analysis of the United States’ history of regime change in the Middle East, highlighting the recurring failures of such policies and their often devastating consequences.

Jerry and Stably explore the core arguments presented in the book, particularly Gordon’s assertion that regime change efforts, while sometimes well-intentioned, have consistently underestimated the complexities of the region and overestimated the ability of external powers to control outcomes. They discuss examples from the book, including interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria, using these case studies to illustrate how regime changes have frequently led to instability, human suffering, and unintended geopolitical consequences.

The hosts focus on Gordon’s critique of the flawed assumptions underpinning these policies, such as the belief that removing a dictator would automatically lead to democratization or that Western-style governance could be imposed on societies with vastly different histories and political structures. They reflect on the role of hubris, ideological bias, and the tendency to prioritize short-term objectives over long-term stability in driving these decisions.

Stably highlights Gordon’s argument that regime change is often pursued without a coherent plan for the aftermath, leading to power vacuums, insurgencies, and regional chaos. Jerry adds a historical perspective, comparing these modern interventions with earlier examples of imperial overreach and the unintended consequences of foreign meddling. Together, they discuss the broader lessons for policymakers, emphasizing the need for humility, a deeper understanding of local contexts, and a focus on diplomacy over military solutions.

The episode also addresses some of the criticisms of Gordon’s analysis, including whether the author underestimates the challenges of non-intervention and the moral dilemmas of tolerating oppressive regimes. While the hosts acknowledge these points, they largely agree with Gordon’s thesis that regime change has been a consistently flawed strategy with predictable and avoidable outcomes.

The discussion concludes with Jerry and Stably reflecting on the broader implications of the book for future U.S. foreign policy. They emphasize Gordon’s call for a more cautious and pragmatic approach, one that prioritizes stability, respect for sovereignty, and the avoidance of overreach. The episode provides a thoughtful examination of the lessons from past failures and a sobering reminder of the complexities of international relations.