Mining Stock Daily Peter Boockvar: Why Markets Need to Pay Attention to Japan Right Now
Dec 3, 2025
Peter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at OnePoint BFG, dives into Japan's potential shift from ultra-loose monetary policy amid rising inflation. He discusses how changes in Japanese bond yields could affect global rates and the U.S. bond market. Boockvar also examines the implications for the Fed's rate-cut plans and highlights precious metals' gains linked to dollar weakness. He draws intriguing parallels between AI capital expenditures and past tech cycles, addressing potential risks and market impacts.
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Japan's Policy Reversal Is A Global Rate Risk
- Japan is reversing decades of easy policy as the BOJ raises rates while inflation runs around 2.5–3.5%.
- Rising JGB yields could pressure global long-term rates and unsettle markets if the move gaps higher.
Japan's Treasury Holdings Could Reallocate
- Japan is the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and could redirect flows into JGBs.
- Even if Japan doesn't sell Treasuries outright, reinvesting less abroad would tighten U.S. supply dynamics.
Prioritize Watching Treasuries Then FX
- Watch U.S. Treasuries first for spillover from rising JGB yields and yen moves.
- Then monitor the dollar and equity reaction if the U.S. long end jumps materially.