NVIDIA and Intel: A Tale of Two Chip Firms w/Oren Cass

Not too long ago, NVIDIA was a niche tech company known for the graphics cards that powered computer gaming. Thanks to skyrocketing growth over the past few years, today, it’s a $4 trillion behemoth that designs cutting-edge chips necessary for frontier AI development. It’s an American company based in Santa Clara, CA. But, like so many other companies, it relies on foreign firms to manufacture its designs—primarily Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

Intel is the only major American company that manufactures its own advanced semiconductors, or chips, but the once iconic firm is on an opposite trajectory. In the 1990s and early 2000s, Intel’s microprocessors powered over 90% of PCs and the company was one of the world’s most valuable. But intel missed the boat on two major tech developments—smartphones and AI—leaving the company a shell of its former glory.

NVIDIA soared while Intel declined, but the two share in common a rollercoaster relationship with Washington and the Trump Administration over their ties to China.  After moving to ban NVIDIA from exporting its H20 chip to China, President Trump reversed the ban in exchange for NVIDIA giving a 15% cut of the sales to the US government. Last month, Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan came under fire for his ties to and investments in Chinese companies, leading Trump to call for his immediate resignation. A few weeks later, Trump announced that the US government would take a 10% stake in Intel for about $10 billion in outstanding CHIPS Act grants, and Trump praised Tan for his affirmed commitments to US interests.

The two companies are at the heart of the most significant tech policy debates in the world—from industrial policy to how to balance a desire to export American technology with the need to safeguard trade secrets and AI advantages. Evan is joined by Oren Cass, founder and chief economist of American Compass. Oren has been a staunch supporter of the CHIPS Act and industrial policies that he believes are necessary to restore high-tech American manufacturing, particularly in semiconductors. He’s also been highly critical of the Administration’s recent moves to allow NVIDIA to export more of its chips to China. 

Read his op-ed in The Washington Post on NVIDIA’s H20 and his newsletter on the topic, as well as his recent op-ed in Commonplace on NVIDIA’s potential antitrust problems. See his newsletter here for more on his reaction to the U.S. government’s equity stake in Intel.