The Jacob Shapiro Podcast War With Iran
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Jan 30, 2026 Hamidreza Azizi, an Iranian security analyst and Substack writer, guides a rapid deep dive into Iran today. He outlines Iran’s domestic turmoil and the IRGC’s political role. He maps likely military responses, proxy options, and regional ripple effects. He also explains internal power struggles shaping Tehran’s decisions.
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Existential Pressure Drives Hardline Responses
- Iran's regime sees simultaneous domestic unrest and external war as existential and will remove red lines to survive.
- That convergence explains the brutal crackdown and heightened readiness described by Hamidreza Azizi.
Attack Risks Accelerating Succession And Chaos
- A U.S. attack could accelerate Iran's succession crisis and produce unpredictable fragmentation or chaos.
- Hamidreza Azizi warns decapitation or broad strikes risk Pandora's box outcomes including civil strife or loss of control over nuclear materials.
Expert Misread Early Protests' Momentum
- Hamidreza Azizi recounts his own misjudgment early January about the protests' trajectory to show prediction limits.
- He uses that experience to caution against confident forecasts about Iran's volatile dynamics.