“An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely, potentially catastrophic, and we can help avoid it.” by JoelMcGuire

Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?

An invasion of Taiwan is uncomfortably likely and potentially catastrophic. We should research better ways to avoid it.

TLDR: I forecast that an invasion of Taiwan increases all the anthropogenic risks by ~1.5% (percentage points) of a catastrophe killing 10% or more of the population by 2100 (nuclear risk by 0.9%, AI + Biorisk by 0.6%). This would imply it constitutes a sizable share of the total catastrophic risk burden expected over the rest of this century by skilled and knowledgeable forecasters (8% of the total risk of 20% according to domain experts and 17% of the total risk of 9% according to superforecasters).

I think this means that we should research ways to cost-effectively decrease the likelihood that China invades Taiwan. This could mean exploring the prospect of advocating that Taiwan increase its deterrence by investing in cheap but lethal weapons platforms [...]

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Outline:

(00:13) Formosa: Fulcrum of the Future?

(02:04) Part 0: Background

(03:44) Part 1: Invasion -- uncomfortably possible.

(08:33) Part 2: Why an invasion would be bad

(10:27) 2.1 War and nuclear war

(19:20) 2.2. The end of cooperation: AI and Bio-risk

(22:44) 2.3 Appeasement or capitulation and the end of the liberal-led order: Value risk

(26:04) Part 3: How to prevent a war

(29:39) 3.1. Diplomacy: speaking softly

(31:21) 3.2. Deterrence: carrying a big stick

(34:16) Toy model of deterrence

(37:58) Toy cost-effectiveness of deterrence

(41:13) How to cost-effectively increase deterrence

(43:30) Risks of a deterrence strategy

(44:12) 3.3. What can be done?

(44:42) How tractable is it to increase deterrence?

(45:43) A theory of change for philanthropy increasing Taiwan's military deterrence

(45:56) en-US-AvaMultilingualNeural__ Flow chart showing policy influence between think tanks and Taiwan security outcomes.

(48:55) 4. Conclusion and further work

(50:53) With more time

(52:00) Bonus thoughts

(52:09) 1. Reminder: a catastrophe killing 10% or more of humanity is pretty unprecedented

(53:06) 2. Where's the Effective Altruist think tank for preventing global conflict?

(54:11) 3. Does forecasting risks based on scenarios change our view on the likelihood of catastrophe?

The original text contained 16 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.

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First published:
June 15th, 2025

Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/qvzcmzPcR5mDEhqkz/an-invasion-of-taiwan-is-uncomfortably-likely-potentially

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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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