The Herd with Colin Cowherd Death of the Underdog
May 14, 2025
Evan Abrams, the Action Network's Director of Research and Media, shares his expertise on the shifting dynamics of sports betting since the repeal of PASPA. He discusses the alarming decline of underdogs in the NFL, revealing how historically profitable betting strategies are changing. The conversation also covers the impact of new betting models and the importance of adapting strategies to meet current trends. Plus, insights on the rise of favorites and the evolving role of mobile quarterbacks in shaping game outcomes make for an eye-opening listen.
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Legalization Shifted Underdog Trends
- Legal sports betting legalization since 2018 changed underdog performance, initially improving but now favorites dominate.
- Larger spreads and better pricing have reduced profitable underdog opportunities, signaling a market evolution.
Bad Dogs Off Big Losses Now Lose
- Classic profitable bets on bad underdogs off big losses have recently reversed, showing negative returns.
- This reversal is alarming as it counters years of reliable betting strategy results.
Avoid Blind Underdog Bets
- Don't blindly bet big underdogs thinking you get free points; recent seasons show they lay down more often.
- Consider quarterback quality and coaching style before committing to these traditionally appealing underdog spots.