Bloomberg Surveillance Geopolitical and Tariff Variables Impacting markets
Aug 8, 2025
Discover the economic implications of rising interest rates as market experts analyze the fluctuating yields of government bonds. Dive into discussions around tariffs and their influence on the bond market, shedding light on potential Federal Reserve actions. Explore how international relations, particularly the Ukraine conflict, are shaping U.S. economic strategies. Plus, delve into the evolving landscape of liquidity in financial markets, where geopolitical tensions and technological advancements are driving new investment narratives.
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T‑Bill Issuance Risk
- Ian Lyngen says markets can absorb more T‑bill issuance for now.
- He warns the Treasury may oversaturate the front end if demand fades.
50bp Cut Contingent On Weak Data
- Ian Lyngen says a 50bp September cut is possible but not the base case.
- A disastrous payrolls print plus tame CPI would trigger market talk of 50bps.
Curve Steepening Versus Long Yields
- Ian Lyngen expects front‑end yields to rally if the Fed cuts, steepening the curve.
- He doubts 10s and 30s will back up much, so mortgage rates may not drop quickly.
