Yet Another Value Podcast November 2025 Random Ramblings
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Nov 14, 2025 Andrew dives into the pitfalls of early wins in investing, illustrating his point with a Vegas craps story. He questions the mental traps of buying stocks he once passed on, exploring how those choices can haunt investors. The conversation shifts to the AI bubble, debating the risks of shorting AI-exposed companies. Andrew also reflects on the frequent disappointments that come from trusting management projections and NAV estimates. With a personal note about his upcoming baby, he invites listeners to engage in further discussions on these topics.
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Craps Hot Streak Shows False Security
- Andrew describes a hot craps table in Vegas where quick wins felt like a free ATM.
- He watched a friend win big nights one and two and then lose it all on night three, illustrating variance and false security.
Winning Streaks Can Mask Lack Of Edge
- Five winners in a row can be a hot table, not skill, and lure you into overconfidence.
- Andrew questions whether his early legal-situation wins were luck rather than repeatable edge.
Legal Situations: From Winners To Losers
- Andrew recounts seven years of legal special-situation wins followed by three years of losses.
- He wonders if his earlier success was selection bias, luck, or diminished diligence.