Michael Weiss, Editor at The Insider, and Owen Matthews, a writer and historian specializing in Russia, dive into the unexpected collapse of Bashar al-Assad's regime. They explore the implications for regional powers and the potential restoration of the Arab Spring spirit. The duo examines how this may reshape U.S. foreign policy and Iran's weakened influence amidst shifting alliances. The conversation also touches on the evolving landscape of jihadism, highlighting its shift from terrorism to a more nationalist approach.
The rapid downfall of Assad's regime reveals its inherent fragility and highlights the complex geopolitical influences shaping the conflict in Syria.
The reorientation of jihadist leaders like Abu Muhammad al-Jolani signifies a shift towards state-building ambitions, impacting future regional stability.
Deep dives
Collapse of the Assad Regime
The sudden collapse of the Assad regime has raised significant questions regarding its stability and the speed of its downfall. Historical military units, such as the Republican Guard and Fourth Division, seemingly crumbled without much resistance, highlighting the regime's fragility. Geopolitical factors, particularly the normalization of relations with Assad by Gulf states, contributed to this outcome as external powers began navigating changing alliances. The dramatic shift has suggested that the regime was far more brittle than previously believed.
Turkey's Strategic Position
Turkey is identified as a crucial player in the shifting dynamics within Syria, particularly in its relationship with the Kurdish PKK group. The Turkish government's attempts to normalize relations with Assad were complicated by its national security concerns regarding this Kurdish presence along its border. Tensions between Turkey and Assad intensified as negotiations stalled, prompting Turkey to support rebel factions intent on diminishing Assad's control. This strategic contradiction has contributed to the current chaos and instability in the region as Turkey grappled with its interests and those of the US.
Russian Influence Diminished
Putin's involvement in Syria has been characterized as a mix of humiliation and opportunity, reflecting a diminished capacity to project Russian military power beyond its borders. While the Russian military presence was limited in scale, it initially allowed Putin to assert influence in the region. However, the recent developments illustrate that the regime in Syria may now be out of reach for continued Russian support. This situation suggests a significant erosion of Russian authority and complicates their role in Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Emerging Jihadi Nationalism
The evolution of jihadist figures, particularly Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, signals a shift toward nationalist ambitions rather than pure transnational terrorism. Jolani's reinvention represents a strategic pivot to state-building efforts within Syria, positioning himself as a potential partner to various governments. The move reflects a broader trend among jihadist groups who realize the necessity of adapting to survive amidst changing political landscapes. This transformation raises concerns about the implications for regional stability and the potential resurgence of extremist elements under the guise of nationalism.
Over the weekend, the rebels from the Syrian opposition claimed Damascus and president Assad had fled to Russia. Keir Starmer has welcomed the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s barbaric regime in Syria and called for civilians to be protected after rebel forces took control of Damascus. Freddy Gray speaks to Michael Weiss, an editor at The Insider, and Owen Matthews, writer and historian. They discuss how this story could develop on the international stage, whether this is the reinvention of the Arab Spring, and what is left of Iran, now that several of its proxies have been destroyed.
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