🌻 forecasts vs. fiction (ft. daniel kokotajlo)

Sometimes, a piece of writing goes so viral that it becomes an event in and of itself. One of the most successful recent instances of this is AI 2027: a detailed scenario outlining how AI might doom humanity within a few short years, as accelerating capabilities intertwine with US-China competition, recursive self-improvement, deceptive misalignment, and job loss.

I’m skeptical about some of AI 2027’s predictions, but appreciative of the format and conversation it sparked. There are plenty of others writing policy reports and op-eds; we need new styles to shock people into thinking in new ways, and to consider a broader-than-usual range of possible outcomes.

Therefore, I invited AI 2027 author Daniel Kokotajlo on the podcast to discuss his team’s approach to creating AI 2027, answers to common critiques of forecasting (e.g. is it just bad sci-fi), and why he thinks writing scenarios can improve your thinking.

Get full access to @jasmine at jasmi.news/subscribe