Rebranding 'the world's most dangerous private army'
Oct 17, 2024
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In this discussion, Sean McFate, a professor at the National Defense University and expert on mercenary groups, delves into the Wagner Group. He examines the fallout from Yevgeny Prigozhin's mysterious plane crash and its implications for global security. McFate explains how the Wagner Group emerged as a powerful player by capitalizing on political instability, highlighting its duality in warfare. He also explores the group's strategic operations in Africa, addressing the geopolitical consequences of its business model and the significance of rare earth minerals.
The Wagner Group's strategy of aligning with troubled regimes for military support in exchange for natural resources has generated a dangerous precedent for future mercenary operations.
Following Prigozhin's death, the Russian government rebranded Wagner under new leadership, signaling a shift in operational control and ongoing influence in conflict zones.
Deep dives
The Wagner Group's Strategic Operations
The Wagner Group, founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, has evolved into a significant force by leveraging opportunities in regions experiencing political turmoil. Prigozhin's model involved forming alliances with distressed regimes and offering military support in exchange for access to valuable natural resources like oil and diamonds. This approach facilitated Wagner's expansion across Africa and the Middle East while creating client states that leaned away from Western influence. The tactics employed by Wagner, including political manipulation and military assistance, have resulted in a blueprint that could inspire future mercenary operations globally.
The Shift in Wagner's Composition and Future
Following the invasion of Ukraine, the Wagner Group's differentiation between its old and new personnel became prominent, impacting its operational effectiveness. While the old guard consisted of seasoned fighters, the new guard mainly comprised criminals released from Russian prisons, leading to significant casualties in Ukraine. Prigozhin's attempted renegotiation with Putin culminated in his mysterious death, which allowed the Russian government to takeover Wagner, rebranding it under new command. The continued operations in Africa, alongside the potential for emerging mercenary groups following Wagner's model, signal an evolving threat landscape tied to rare earth mineral extraction in conflict zones.
When the leader of the Wagner group, Yevgeny Prigozhin died in an exploding plane widely attributed to Russian President Vladimir Putin, it wasn't clear what would happen. Today, why the Wagner Group has been called the world's most dangerous private army, its relationship with Russia and how its business model creates a blueprint for others to follow.
Related episodes: Not your typical army: how the Wagner Group operates (Apple / Spotify) How the 'shadow fleet' helps Russia skirt sanctions (Apple / Spotify)
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