Rushing Touchdowns: Predictive Value

Rushing touchdowns hold significant interest for fantasy football strategists, particularly those analyzing their predictive power across seasons. An in-depth analysis of data from 2010 to 2023 revealed that players with 10 or more rushing touchdowns in one season typically experienced a substantial drop in performance the following year, with an average of about 8.83 touchdowns—indicating approximately a 30% decline. Notable instances reveal that while star players such as Derrick Henry have consistently secured high touchdown totals, many notable names, like Le'Veon Bell, surprisingly never surpassed the ten-touchdown threshold in any season despite their overall fantasy contributions. This conversation emphasizes the importance of context, such as offensive scheme and quarterback involvement, in determining a running back's touchdown potential from year to year.