The Macro Dirt Podcast Strange Crew - A Trip to the Great White North with "The Macro Tourist" Kevin Muir
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Dec 18, 2025 Kevin Muir, known as 'The Macro Tourist', is an institutional equity derivatives veteran and macro commentator. In this conversation, he expresses his bearish outlook on the AI trade, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble. Muir discusses the risks of a potential drawdown in the MAG7 stocks, urges listeners to consider rotations into commodities and small-cap stocks, and highlights gold miners as a sector poised for dramatic gains. He also delves into fiscal dominance from the Trump era, predicting a structural shift in dollar dynamics and capital flows.
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Personal Stanley Cup Story
- Kevin shares a personal story: his brother played in the NHL and briefly had the Stanley Cup for a day.
- He also recalled his daughter holding the Cup, illustrating a personal connection to the Ray Bourque anecdote.
AI Concentration Looks Like A Massive Bubble
- Kevin Muir warns the AI-driven rally feels like a massive concentrated bubble with catastrophic downside risks.
- He expects a one-third to one-half drawdown in the MAG7 or AI-heavy names when it collapses under its own weight.
Free Cash Flow Divergence Is A Red Flag
- Free cash flow has flattened while reported EPS rose, signaling heavy reinvestment and stretched fundamentals.
- That divergence suggests companies are funding growth instead of generating incremental cash, raising sustainability concerns.