Alex Cohen, Principal Researcher at GiveWell, sheds light on the looming cuts to global health funding, predicting a staggering 50% reduction in U.S. aid. He discusses the potential $20 billion annual funding gap and its impact on vital programs like malaria prevention and HIV treatment. The episode highlights the strategic approaches needed in navigating these uncertainties, emphasizing prioritization and adaptability to protect the most effective health initiatives. Cohen's insights offer a crucial look into the future of global health philanthropy.
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insights INSIGHT
Forecasting Major Global Aid Cuts
Forecasts indicate a potential 50% cut in U.S. global health funding and 35% reduction globally.
This could create a $20 billion funding gap annually in global health programs.
insights INSIGHT
Cost-Effectiveness of Funding Cuts
About 10% of global health funding is for programs that are 20x more cost-effective than GiveWell's benchmark.
Cuts are likely to hit even highly cost-effective programs, causing significant needs.
insights INSIGHT
Country Governments' Role is Critical
The response of country governments is a major uncertainty in offsetting aid cuts.
Some nations like Nigeria have committed funds to fill those gaps, but the overall effect is unclear.
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In the face of potential major cuts to foreign aid, how can we anticipate the impact on global health and effectively direct resources to the areas of greatest need?
In this episode, GiveWell’s CEO and co-founder, Elie Hassenfeld, speaks with Principal Researcher Alex Cohen to discuss the forecasting work GiveWell has undertaken to better understand what the future of global health funding might look like. They explore the potential size of the funding gaps, which programs might be affected, and how GiveWell is preparing to respond in a new era for global health philanthropy.
Elie and Alex discuss:
The scale of potential aid cuts: Informed by insights from professional forecasters, policy experts, and other partners, GiveWell anticipates a potential 50% cut in US global health funding and a 35% reduction in overall global health funding, creating a funding gap of approximately $20 billion annually. These estimates are highly uncertain, but they provide a directional view of what the funding landscape could look like.
The impact on the most cost-effective programs: While some prioritization is expected to protect cost-effective programs, we estimate around $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 20x our benchmark or greater—in addition to another $1.5 billion in cuts to programs that are 10x to 20x our benchmark. This includes programs like malaria prevention, HIV treatment, and childhood vaccinations.
How GiveWell is preparing to respond: In response to these potential gaps, GiveWell is working to increase its research capacity to investigate new funding areas like HIV/AIDS, which have historically been well-funded. We’re also engaging with supporters to highlight the exceptional impact additional funding could have.
While forecasting provides a valuable framework for planning, these estimates are highly uncertain, and the situation remains fluid. GiveWell is monitoring the funding landscape through regular check-ins with partners and experts, as we recognize that the impacts of the coming cuts will likely emerge gradually rather than all at once. Whatever the exact outcome, the scale of cuts we're forecasting will likely create significant new funding needs, and we will do all we can to find and fund them.
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