Desperate Escalations in Middle East & Ukraine - Alastair Crooke, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
Dec 1, 2024
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Alastair Crooke, a British diplomat and Middle East analyst, joins forces with Alexander Mercouris and Glenn Diesen to dissect escalating tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine. They delve into the limitations of Israeli military strategies and the tactical resilience of Hezbollah amid ongoing conflicts. The discussion also sheds light on Turkey's ambitions and the intricate web of regional alliances. Exploring the complexities of international diplomacy, they emphasize the nuanced understanding needed to navigate these critical geopolitical landscapes.
The ongoing conflict in Israel showcases severe military strains and rising internal dissent due to the heavy casualties and uneven conscription challenges.
Turkey's military operations in Syria reflect its aim to secure borders and establish influence, ultimately prioritizing national interests over regional support despite public rhetoric.
The underestimation of Russia's military capabilities by Western analysts could lead to severe miscalculations, exacerbating existing geopolitical tensions, particularly around Ukraine.
Deep dives
Current Situation in the Middle East
Israel's ongoing conflict highlights the challenges of a ceasefire and involves significant military considerations. The current ceasefire with Lebanon is viewed as a temporary truce due to Israel's overstretched military resources, with forces reportedly operating below optimal levels. Heavy casualties in Lebanon have raised tensions within the Israeli government and led to internal protests, especially among reservists who feel compelled to fight in an uneven conscription scenario. The dichotomy of losses faced by various sectors of the Israeli population creates further friction within the coalition government, making the management of military commitments increasingly complex.
Turkey's Strategic Interests
Turkey's involvement in Syria reflects its aim to establish a buffer zone and exert control over territory in the context of its complexities with both neighboring nations and international allies. President Erdogan's military operations in Idlib aim to secure Turkish borders by targeting Kurdish populations and managing the influx of potential refugees from the Syrian conflict. These actions are also seen as an effort to mollify the United States, as Erdogan seeks to restore relations and revitalize the previous F-35 contract. Despite Erdogan's rhetoric supporting the Palestinian cause, his actions indicate a prioritization of Turkish interests over genuine regional support.
Underestimation of Hezbollah
Israel's military operations against Hezbollah showcase a significant underestimation of the group's resilience and strategic depth. Historically, Israeli military strategy has relied on eliminating leadership as a means to destabilize opposing forces, yet this approach has proven ineffectual as Hezbollah has adapted and evolved. The second-generation commanders, who have gained extensive battlefield experience, utilize a decentralized command structure and advanced tactical training, thereby complicating Israeli military efforts. This disparity in military capability has resulted in Israeli forces struggling to achieve significant territorial gains during the conflict.
Russian Military Dynamics
Russia's military posture is characterized by a sense of underestimation by Western analysts, particularly following the advancements represented by the new Oryshnik missile system. Discussions among Western military strategists reveal an enduring belief in American superiority, which overlooks Russia's demonstrated capabilities and strategic innovations. The perception that Russia is weakened could lead to critical miscalculations within NATO, particularly as geopolitical tensions with Ukraine and elsewhere linger. Putin's recent assertive communications illustrate a shift in dynamics where Western pressures may inadvertently bolster Russian resolve and complicate diplomatic engagements.
Implications of a Potential Trump Administration
The potential return of Donald Trump to office elicits mixed reactions regarding its impact on U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East and Ukraine. While Trump’s rhetoric suggests a pivot away from endless military engagements, his approach to international diplomacy remains a point of contention, particularly with Russia and Iran. Analysts speculate that an authentic shift in dialogue and policy could emerge if Trump is willing to genuinely engage in negotiations, rather than impose unilateral demands. The circumstances surrounding Trump’s views on diplomacy versus traditional deal-making elevate concerns that significant geopolitical relationships may continue to shift amidst a lack of substantive dialogue.