Bloomberg Surveillance Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Anna Wong & Constance Hunter
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Sep 4, 2025 Discover the continuous trading opportunities available in the futures market, especially with S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures operating nearly around the clock. Hear insights on the limited liquidity of ETF markets and how recent job reports are shaping labor market trends. Delve into the challenges economic leaders face with downward revisions in data, as they balance inflation control against signs of slowing growth. This enlightening discussion with leading economists uncovers the complexities of navigating today's economic landscape.
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Benchmark Revisions Could Shift Job Narrative
- Anna Wong warns the September benchmark revisions could be large and materially change monthly payroll trends.
- She notes last year's negative 800,000 revision and flags that another ~700,000 downward adjustment would alter expected Fed cuts.
Treat Preliminary Jobs Data Cautiously
- Adjust near-term policy expectations for possible large downward revisions when interpreting payroll data.
- Treat preliminary monthly numbers cautiously because benchmark revisions can cumulatively equal several hundred thousand jobs.
Powell's Tightrope Between Inflation And Growth
- Constance Hunter emphasizes Powell's balancing act between inflation control and a slowing underbelly of the economy.
- She argues Powell has anchored expectations while remaining sensitive to uneven economic weakness.