Build, Repeat. (A Paces Podcast) Fixing the Grid-Data Center Disconnect with Tony Wagler and Alex Oort Alonso
Dec 3, 2025
Tony Wagler, a power project developer at Paces, and researcher Alex Oort Alonso delve into a critical issue: the mismatch between projected data center growth and real grid planning. They reveal how speculative load growth influences costly transmission investments. Their analysis of 14 million Texas land parcels suggests a land-first, data-driven approach could better align development with infrastructure. The discussion highlights only 17% of viable land near substations has adequate capacity, stressing the need for smarter coordination in planning and decision-making.
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Unprecedented Data Center Load Forecasts
- Data center load forecasts are enormous and unprecedented, with ERCOT expecting ~30 GW by 2030 and national estimates near 80 GW.
- Traditional top-down planning can't reliably handle that scale or the uncertainty of speculative projects.
Past Buildout Informed Planner Skepticism
- Tony recalled the last major data center buildout where growth concentrated in a few geographies and much demand didn't materialize.
- That past experience explains current planner skepticism about repeating wide-scale buildouts.
Speculation Warps Planning Signals
- Speculative interconnection requests flood queues and create noisy signals for transmission planners.
- That noise can cause planners to prepare infrastructure for loads that may never materialize.