Discussion on hedge fund performance in 2023 and potential opportunities in a higher rate environment. Exploration of favored strategies and geographies in the current market. Decrease in China's hedge fund exposure and sentiment of investors. Changing investor base and risk appetite in hedge funds with a decline in pension fund involvement and focus on liability matching strategies.
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Quick takeaways
Hedge funds had a muted performance in 2023 compared to a strong market rally, with a significant gap in returns by year-end.
Despite challenges faced in 2023, historically, hedge funds tend to perform better in high-rate environments due to lower market correlations and higher dispersion of outcomes.
Deep dives
Hedge fund performance in 2023
Hedge funds had a muted performance in 2023 compared to a strong rally in the markets. By the end of October, both hedge funds and a 6040 portfolio were up about 3%, but the 6040 portfolio saw a significant rally by the year-end, reaching a 16% increase while hedge funds only reached a 7% increase.
Hedge funds in a high rate environment
Historically, hedge funds have performed better in higher rate environments due to lower correlations between stocks and higher dispersion of outcomes. However, in 2023, with the transition from a zero-rate environment, hedge funds did not meet the typical expectations of outperforming. Challenges such as limited market breadth and violent reversals created difficulties for hedge funds. Despite this, it is believed that over time, high-rate environments should be better for hedge fund strategies.
Hedge fund strategies and investor appetite in 2024
Credit strategies have been consistently favored in recent years, benefitting from the higher rate environment and greater dispersion of outcomes. However, multi-strategy funds, particularly multi-manager firms, saw somewhat softer returns in 2023, leading to a slight decrease in investor interest. From a regional perspective, investors have been stepping back from Asia, especially China, over multiple years. China's exposure and net buying by hedge funds have increased recently, primarily due to low previous exposure and a technical bounce. Overall, hedge fund sentiment remains positive among investors, but a shortage of liquidity in portfolios limits their ability to allocate more capital.
What do hedge funds tell us about 2023 and the year ahead? Freddie Parker, co-head of Prime Insights and Analytics in Global Banking & Markets, discusses hedge fund performance last year and how a higher rate environment might benefit their portfolios in 2024.