Torsten Slok, Apollo Global Management Chief Economist, says the Fed's easing of financial conditions could pose risks to the US economy. Cameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth Chief Investment Officer, suggests that a potential repricing of rates would be a pain trade. Dan Ives, Wedbush Sr. Equity Research Analyst, says Apple's growth potential makes the stock a 'golden buying opportunity.' Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets Large Cap Bank Analyst, advises incorporating bank stocks into investor portfolios and believes we'll see further consolidation in the industry. Norman Roule, Center for Strategic & International Studies Senior Adviser, discusses the latest in the Middle East after a senior Hamas official was killed in Beirut.

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Full Transcript:
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Right now, our conversation of the day. Synthesizing all this together. Torson Stock is chief economist at Apollo Global Management. Torson I'm going to pull in here a whole bunch of threads. The Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index is showing massive accommodation, and yet I look at the old liboard, the news, Sofa, sofr and I'm seeing huge restriction within the short term paper market tensions on Wall Street and the ill liquidity on Wall Street. How urgent is it for the FED to make some direction on a March cut or dare I even say a January first cut? Well, it has a number of different dimensions. First, there is a dimension on the real economy. It's clear that the FED pivot has eased financial conditions dramatically, and this begins to run the risk that we might see a repeat of what happened at the citycon Valley Bank. Remember Chris Waller just said a few weeks ago the easing of financial conditions in Q two that boost the GDP growth to five percent in Q three. Could we see the same now where the easing of financial conditions after the fat pivot might actually be boosting the housing market, the label market, services inflation, goods inflation. We are not out of the woods when it comes to battling inflation. So on the real economy, absolutely, the easing of financial conditions is very supportive. There are some issues when it comes to the plumbing when the tightness as you're highlighting in very short term markets, and the FED for sure has to play this difficult talk of wall between do we want to ease financial condition on the rial side or how much can we ease financial conditions in the very front end of the curve. But this is the challenge for the FED. At the moment that you're highlighting, Torsten, you didn't listen. They didn't respond to the idea of financial conditions. They didn't seem to think it mattered at all at the last press conference. Why should it matter now? I mean we're going to actually hear them come back and say, actually, just kidding about that financial conditions question. Well, they were debating in October and September, well maybe financial conditions have done a lot of the work for us, and now they're saying, well, maybe financial conditions it doesn't really matter because it can fluctuate so much. So I still think that it's a little bit inconsistent what they're saying when that data dependency, it only talks about the real data, whereas the financial conditions impulse. If you take the easy and financial conditions that we've had since the fit pivot and stuff it into furpose the fed's model of the US economy, you will get a boom of up to one and a half percent growth over the next slevel quarters in GDP. It's going to be very supportive as a tailwind to the economic outlook. Although we did have Ganadi on earlier of TD securities, and he said even with this idea that inflation could remain stickier, that we could get this ongoing growth, the FED could still cut rates and still be restrictive. Given the positive real rate. Do you ascribe to that kind of thing or do you think that just means many fewer rate cuts going forward for the Fed. I think that's absolutely right that we have. Of course, for the better part of the last year, we have talked about higher for longer. Now the conversation is more restrictive for longer, because they can still be restrictive if inflation is coming down, because real interest rates is what matters. So if real interest rates are still positive as inflation comes down, the fact and according you also gradually begin to lower rates. But note also that if you look at the outlook for sofa futures, as also Tom was mentioning, you still have that the bottom will still be around three and a half four percent. So one very important conclusion for as an allocation is that we are not going back to zero. We have still higher for longer, in the sense that the level of interest rates, the level of the free rate on page one in your finance textbook, will be significantly higher for the next several years than where it was from the period from twosand and eight to twenty twenty two. Let's try and get to the half of what we're discussing. Care the interest rates sensitivity of the US economy exactly. And now what we've seen over the last two years is rates go up aggressively and not slow down the economy. And what you're suggesting is that as rates start to come in and financial conditions ease, that the economy picks up again. Can you help explain that to people why higher rates haven't slowed the economy down but easy find financial conditions will boost it. Ye. But what's very important in that debate, and that's also taking place on Twitter and X of course here at the moment, is that my lift very critically sophisticate. Important to remember that that is significantly a function of whether you talk about the interest rate sensitive components of GDP or the non interest rate sensitive components of GDP. If you split GDP into the cyclical components and the non signal components, the main component that is sensitive to interest rates is housing. And housing did respond dramatically to higher rates. So this whole idea that the economy didn't respond to higher rates, that's just completely wrong. Of course, the economy responded to rates. It was the interest rate sensitive parts that responded to rates going up. Housing started slowing down. But the non interest rate sensitive components, in this case travel, restaurants, hotels. After COVID had such a long tailwind that that more than dominate the slow down in the housing market. So splitting that debate away from the academic textbook, which we all love, is so important because it becomes so critical to think about did the parts of the economy that are sensitive to interest rates did they actually respond? And absolutely, in particular housing Kapix also of COMMERCIALI state things that are sensus of two interest rates they did absolutely respond to when interest rates window. This is a fantastic explanation. So let's build on it. Let's project this out. What are the forecasts now for you for GDP in the next couple of quarters. We heard from the likes of Max Kanner of HSBC who said, the biggest risk right now is that we have to reprice rates again higher because exactly of what you're talking about, what are you looking for in the data? Well, if I type ECFCG on my Bloomberg screen, I will see that over the next six months we are very close to zero, zero point four and zero point five on GDP for Q one and Q two. So the consensus answer to your question is GP growth is continuously slowing as a result of the fat's campaign of hiking rates. The new risk that has emerged is that because of the fit pivot, that means that the interest rates sensitive components that we're dragging down GDP for the better part of last year, they might now begin to rebound. Housing most importantly, case SHILLA is now up five percent. Case SHILLA is a very important leading indicator for the OEI, meaning the shelter components of the CPI, and shelter makes up forty percent of the index, So that means that if something that makes up forty percent of the index is about to rebound, we could come back to that discussion about maybe the rates markets we'll have to reprise to higher for long gun and more restrictive for longer. I just looked at the two year inflation adjusted yield. I haven't looked at it since time began Nixon was president, and I can use the word never over twenty years, the integran, or the duration of a high two year real rate, we've never seen. We had a spike in eight with a great financial crisis, but these sustained high two year real yields are absolutely unprecedented for global Wall Street. How unstable are we right now? I would say, at least from a fet perspective. If you just take the economic textbook out and think about what matters, it is absolutely as you're highlighting real rates, So real rates being at these levels would tell you that we're still in very restrictive territory. So the challenge here for the FIT is that they still want to have the soft landing, and we all want to have the soft landing. That will be the best outcome, of course, from so many dimensions. But what is beginning to matter is that they have now sucked so much liquidity out. We've gotten to a point where we are beginning to see some strains in the plumbing that you're highlighting. And that's why real rates it has a very significant different impact on the long end and what it means for the real economy relative to what high real rates means for the front end and what it means for financial markets as host. And this has been an absolute Cameron Dawson joins US now chief investment Officer at New Edge Wealth Camic and morning and happy New year, Good morning, Happy nowear are you sitting on the fence because I'm written this first line in your work. It says we could have a scenario where both bulls and hairs are right this year, which one is it? Well, I think that we have to be nimble because I believe that there is going to be a scenario where you could very easily see people get drawn even further into this market. We think positioning is overweight, but not quite as is extreme as it was in times like twenty twenty one or twenty eighteen. So you could see some pain get pulled in. But the other reality is that you could see a rationalization of the fact that sentiment is very extended and that valuations are extended. So it's how you react to market rallies or market corrections, I think is how you will win. In twenty twenty four we mentioned that HSBC. So let's talk about the work coming from Max Kentna this morning. Here's this line, biggest risk another repricing and rights. Do you agree with that one hundred percent? That's the pain trade. The pain trade is that everybody thinks that inflation is fully vanquished and then gets surprised if things like oil prices move higher. Wages end up being stickier than expected rates move higher, and then all of those stocks that rerated in the last two months up thirty forty percent because now they're not worried about their balance sheets anymore. Balance sheet risk becomes an issue again, and you get a reversion of a lot of the names that were lower quality that happened to lead at the end of last year. The modeled out earnings are nine percent ten percent. Dare I say double digit eleven percent earnings growth for this year? Is that in the price now or is that going to develop out in the first half of next year. It is in the price now, and I think that we always have to think about the path of twenty four will be pricing in what actually happens in twenty twenty five. So if a recession looks more likely in twenty twenty five, that's when you'll start to see those earning estements get cut into the out years. The thing that's the biggest challenge for us for earning estments in twenty four is the expectation that top line growth will re accelerate in a year where nominal growth because of inflation is expected to decelerate. Can you see that happen at the same time where we get less inflation, less pricing power, and yet we get a big acceleration in top So away for the romance of Apple and Microsoft. If you look at Staples and discretionary and all, you've got to model out there, what you go back from a six percent wonderment of growth back to four percent revenue growth? Yeah, very likely. And there are idiots and pockets where you're going to see improvement. You know, healthcare had its earnings down almost twenty percent last year, that will flip positive this year just because of easy comps. So that's where we're trying to look outside of just the macro drivers, Staples being a great example of one that can't get away from this inflationary dynamic, and look instead to the more idiotsyncratic opportunities our banks to douse syncratic opportunities. And I ask with JP Morgan at new record high, Yeah, I mean you've seen such a huge rerating. Of course, there's pockets of banks where there is still inexpensive areas. You know, banks do have the tailwind of a less inverted curve, hopefully a reopening of capital markets. But then we have to consider things like BTFP, does it get re extended Basil three in game, all of these things that could be big drivers of bank earnings or at least appetite for bank risk as we go through twenty twenty four. It sounds like you're not buying the rotation story. I am buying the rotation story. Yeah. I think that we have to have an open mind that even great companies with great balance sheets, with monopolies could still underperform simply because positioning is so crowded and because valuations are so elevated. That's the smartest insight I've heard in the last forty eight hours. Are we going to have rotation or not? That's a really, really undersaid cool question. I think that that was really some of the anks behind the sell off that we've seen that was living, that was really led by big tech. We were talking about this yesterday with Apple, and I guess that you know, how much does that have legs versus what we saw last year, which was a headfake and everyone came in saying, all right, this is the year to sell tech, and by the end of the year of them was saying in Nvidia Magnificent seven, it's going to change the world. Kumba Yah it's going to save the United States, I mean, et cetera, et cetera. And what a different setup because at the very end of twenty twenty two you had record outflows from tech ETFs. You look at the course of twenty twenty three, you had forty billion dollars of inflows into technology compared to twenty billion dollars of outflows out of things like energy and financials and healthcare. So really this could just be about positioning and pain trades and the fact that you already re rated tech because now it's already just one turn away from its twenty twenty one peak valuation, so you're hitting a ceiling. Let's put a couple of stories together. You said, maybe the biggest paying trait the risk here is high, right, so reprice give rights again at Lisa brought up banks. How woud the banks respond to that given what we saw last year? Yeah, I mean it would raise balance sheet risk again. It probably puts into sharp focus again issues with commercial real estate because we've all kind of breathed this collective sigh of relief that higher for longer is dead if it's not dead, and the path of the cost of capital instead of the last forty years of being down is actually marching slightly higher and in a choppy path. Could mean that we have to reprice some of the risk in some of these balance sheets. Is it just JP Morgan then everyone else? When we talk about the banks, is that what we're talking about? JP Morgan then everybody else? We actually just are looking very deeply at some of the regional banks. Some of the regional banks are underpriced. We think if we look at the balance sheets, they're not as extended as or as issued as some parts of regional banks that some don't have as much commercial real estate exposure, have great presence in their local areas, so they're trading at very discounted valuations. If we're going down in value, that's one of the areas we're actually looking. Yeah, it's somebody at you know, the last five six, seven days at JP Morgan's capturing one out of five profit dollars in American banking. If that isn't the third or fourth or fifth national bank of the United States, I don't know what is. There is nothing else. It's JP Morgan versus everyone else. That's been a story the last year. I'll refer to our guests done this. But yeah, I mean they're capturing some twenty percent of profits according to the source. I'm sorry you don't have a source in front of me to side. I think it's it's the it's the Bramow newsletter. You know that newsletters. It's a muster r. It's a muster reader. Camic. Thank you got to leave this. It's going to catch up. It's going to say a happy new Year, Cameron Dawson, the new h wel let's get right to it. This is so important right now. Dan Ives joins us. He is a bull on any number of technology companies. We wait for him to come out on controlled data here and with a birecommendation at some point. That's a little bit of history there. Dan Ives with webbush Dan, what's a channel check? What exactly is a channel check? I just I just don't see it. Yeah, and look for us in terms of our easier supply gene checks, really trying to focus on what demand looks like in terms of the suppliers for iPhones. There have been no cuts from an iPhone perspective as of data, and I think that's that's bullets and ultimately that shows demand through howadays season has actually been on part, actually better than expected. And to me, that's what I focus on rather than the haters continue, Okay, but data tell Okay, you've been gracious about this, and they've been gracious about your twenty twenty three ganormous success. But when you do a channel check, are you counting iPhones? Are you over in China guessing the manufacturing line? Are you in the store on Madison Avenue looking at how many people from Lisa's family are buy an Apple loot? What's a channel check? Yeah? All above time. I mean, we feel we're in Apple stores around the country, around the world. We're also talking to suppliers basically trying to triangulate to what we think units is going to look like for the quarter and for the year. And that's how we've done it from the beginning, I mean, over the last decades so. And it's one of you're always gonna have different opinions. You just talk about the Barclays downgrade. We continue to stick with our checks. That that has navigated us, you know, a lot more right than wrong. I think when you look at I from fifty, it's easy to take shots, you know, relative to maybe some of the fears out there, especially fire and a crowd theater first day at the trading you know a year I it's a groundhog day. You know, we saw it last year as well. It's underestimated. Two hundred and fifty million. Is the install based upgrade cycle that's due in that window has an upgrade in four years, Dan, let's get into it. You mentioned Barkleys, Tom mentioned it too. I mentioned this, so let's get to that line. The continued period of weak results coupled with multiple expansion not sustainable in that it is a statement of fact, and then there's an opinion of the end. The statement of fact is iPhone cuts. They haven't been great for the last twelve months. That's the fact. Yet it's been coupled with multiple expansion, also a fact. The opinion piece is they're saying it's not sustainable. Are you suggesting that it is? Yeah, So what I'm suggesting is that the next three to four quarters you're going to have iPhone growth. You have growth coming out in China despite the fears and abs are the bare noise, and I think the most important thing is services, and I think services is going to be teenager type of growth. That's key to the multiples Manson story. And then we go into later this year, there's gonna be more monization from an AI as we talked about. That's gonna be the next layer. I think it all results and this is gonna be viewed as more of a golden buying opportunity rather than the start to hit the elevator exit. How much Dan, is your bullish call predicated on this idea of rate cuts, the idea of rates coming down as much as people think, yeah, look, that's probably five ten percent from multiple perspective. I mean, as we saw twenty two to the disaster twenty three in terms of now popcorn movement, in terms of FED gonna cut in twenty four. Look, it speaks to our overall bull tech thesis, right that the soft landing Killsberry do a boys soft landing. You're starting to see now more and more focus on tech. I do think now. You know, as Pharaoh's talked about multiple expansion twenty three, I think the numbers show it in twenty four. That's the difference. Twenty four is where the numbers come through, and tech twenty three was more than multiple expansion. Well, you mentioned China and how China demand is going to pick back up, But I wonder if it's going to be for iPhones. And I know we've been talking about this for a long time, but yesterday this caught my attention. The Chinese automaker BYD surpassed Tesla in terms of deliveries for the first time. You're seeing that really start to be a main theme. People said that that was never going to happen. People say that it's never going to happen, that Chinese consumers are going to throw out their iPhones. What makes you so confident that we're not going to see the same thing happen in the iPhone cycle that we're seeing right now in the electric vehicle one? Yeah, great question. And look, when you focus on Tesla, I mean that's essentially two horse race between TESTSA and BID. Tests actually beat numbers and China was strong for them. But I think it does speak to look domestically BID they're beast. I mean, they've done a phenomenal job, but Tessa is always going to be aware there in China. When you look at what's happening within the China market from an idphone perspective, it speaks to just a massive and all bays that they built in China. You have one hundred million iPhones in China right now, window of an upgrade opportunity, and the irony is despite geopolitical the last eighteen months, Apples gained three inch books of market share because the average high end, as in middle income Chinese consumer, they want an iPhone despite government basically trying to push WAWE. And I'm so pleased to Lisa brought up the EV comparison because I think that industry right now has the potential to be the industry story of twenty twenty four and beyond byd beyond Tesla. How much of a reality check are we getting for the industry for the likes of GM and Ford, I think a big reality shacka. That's why you've seen Farley. I think Mary they pull back, you know, in terms of a bit from the EV strategy in Detroit. And the problem here is do consumers want EV or they just want to tessel And I think that that's really the issue that's really starting to play out. And at this point, Tesla's doubling down on evs, but no doubt there's been I think much more moderate demand that we're seeing across the board, and you know, I think as that puts out, you're going to see others peel back while others go more aggressively, like the likes of the Tesla. I wonder what you think the endgame actually is. If you speak to the leadership at GM of thought, they've been generous with that time we've had this conversation with them. They talk about a change in execution, maybe not a change in strategy. Would you expect to see a change in strategy this year and what would that look like? I think slight changing strategy where maybe they pull back on some of their long term numbers in terms of EV when they expect to go fully EV you know, as a two thousand and thirty four thirty five. Look, the UAW also put their back against the wall. It's a different cost structure and they're trying right now to it's a tight balancing act that they're trying to get to in Detroit. And I think also it's tough going up against the likes of Tesla and some of these other evs. That's been a big part of the problem that they're focused on, especially now with the UAW. Increase in the cost structure, well said Dan. Going to hear from your happy new year, Sir Dan is Wetbush. Jere Cassidy, Large Camp Bank analyst that RBC Capital markets rights in this. After a tumultuous twenty twenty three, we believe the banks are our positioned for investors to warn outsize returns in twenty twenty four and investors should overweight the sector in their portfolios. Jer Cassidy, I'm pleased to say join us. Now let's go straight to it. Number one question. This is a question for me, and I know it's a question for Lisa. Is this off the back of high yields or lower yields? I would say John that we're expecting that the yields gravitate lower, especially at the front end of the curve when you take a look at what the Fed has done. If we truly are at the terminal rate for FED funds in the past four tightening cycles when they started to cut rates, it's always been a catalyst for bank stocks. And think what we're expecting as the market is that at some point in twenty four the Fed could cut your term interest rates. Is this for bank stops or is this for JP Morgan at least a very good question, because JP Morgan has been the risk off trade and it's been spectacular, as you guys mentioned, record highs. And so if we're going into a risk on environment, which I believe we are, if the FED is finished tightening, then actually JP Morgan is probably going to be a source of funds for many investors. It is a stock that is owned everywhere. It's been a great stock, but risk on may be the better way to go with a Bank America or City Group or others like that a source of funds. I love that it's a euphemism for it gets sold, so that you could raise money to buy something you think is going to return more the fact that you think it's going to be Bank of America. Do you also lean into the Mic Mayo idea that City Group and its whole revamp with some of its streamlining, hutting units, massive job cuts is going to be the real winner over time is going to be certainly an opportunity to be a winner. They've still got a lot of heavy lifting. Jane Frasier's leading the charge here, of course, and I think it's a very big, complicated job. It's turning around the notion liner. There's early progress, a lot of heavy lifting, as I said to do. But if she can succeed in the management, succeed this stock is definitely undervalued and it has great upside, but it's been a value trapped for many years, so we'll have to wait and see. Jarred I went to a seminar once at a firm long ago called Tucker, Anthony and Rlday, and I was lectured that banks are supposed to return nominal GDP plus a little bit. I'm going to center tendency. Is that make an eight, nine, ten percent once in your lifetime? JP Morgan has turned that upside down. You didn't see this coming. You're the expert, nor did anybody else. The returns of ten years, of twenty years or fifteen percent or so. Their thirty year return is solid double digit return. What did Harrison? What did Diamond get right? Tom? It's really Jamie Diamond. I think you could get give Harrison credit, I guess for merging with Bank one when Jamie Diamond was their CEO. And of course Diamond has taken over since then, and it's been his steadfast focus on delivering for shareholders, both through expansion and growth, but at the same time controlling expenses. They also have done a very good job in diversifying their revenue. Their consumer banking business, similar to Bank America, is very very profitable. On top of that, they've got a very strong capital markets business. The bear Stearns acquisition, which was very difficult in early years because of the reputational problems that came along with it, has worked out extremely well for them. So I would say the diversity of revenue, Tom and the focus on leading or delivering for shareholders. But back to Andrew Jackson, who you covered, you know years ago, Girardi, I mean, are they the fifth bank of the Uni United States? Over the holidays, somebody said one out of five profit dollars comes to JP Morgan. They're building their palace on fifth on Park Avenue right now. I mean to the Butch Cassidy idea, who are these guys? Are they the Bank of the United States. I don't think they're the Bank of the United States. But they have done a great job in delivering for their shareholders and for their employees and their communities as well. It's been a big growth engine for the company. This economy, the global economy as well. And again it's this leadership that they have under Diamond and his executive management team. And Tom, you know, many of his senior folks have left JP Morgan and are now CEOs of other banks, like Charlie Sharp at Wells Fargo, and so he's got a very deep bench and they execute. And that's the key. Tom. You know, banking is a commodity business. As you well know, it's all about execution. And JP Morgan is that you executed extremely well. What is the business model though, that you want to execute as a big US bank? Chard And this, I think is one of the key questions that we had during last year when the rise of private capital, private equity, private debt really was challenging the capital markets activity of certain big financial institutions. Can the JP Morgans, the Bank of Americas, the city groups get into the private debt world that in some ways has been stealing their lunch? I think it Ken, Lisa, And when you think about it, and you're right, the private equity private debt area is certainly growing much faster than the banks. But believe it or not, the shadow banking industry has been taking the bank's market share for forty years you go back to the early eighties and you look at the market share that the banks had of lending into the United States, it was well over forty percent. The private or shadow banking market was in the low twenties. Today it's completely flip flopped. The bank's market share now is in the low twenties and the shadow banking is in the fifty over fifty percent. So the banks have done it through consolidation. You know, when Tom and I were young, we had over eighteen thousand banks in the United States in the early nineteen eighties. Today there's forty six hundred. JP Morgan has been a big beneficiary of that, and they've been able to create those efficiencies. So yes, they can compete. They will compete, and I don't think that the banks are going to be put out of business, but certainly they don't have the market share that they used to have. But we have to remember too, the economy has grown dramatically in forty years, and they have the smallest slice of the pie, but they're more profitable than ever, not just JP Morgan, but other banks as well. What about the smaller banks, Given the fact that you're talking about a bigger slice of just overall activity. You haven't seen that so much in the smaller banks, and with rates forbading high, you're going to have real commercial real estate pressures as well. It's interesting, it depends on you know how small the bank is and who owns it. I've always maintained this banking system we have in the United States is obviously very polarized. You got the very small banks at one end and the very large banks at the other end. And if it's a non if it's if the owners of the smaller banks, private banks, or mutual savings banks or another group of banks, if their owners are comfortable with earning returns on equities of four or five percent, and they're not going to sell the bank as long as they have FDIC insurance, they're going to remain in business indefinitely. On the other end, if you do have a bank with thirty billion in assets and it's not earning up to what its shareholders want it's to earn, then they're going to have to consolidation. Consolidation is going to continue. We're in a pause right now, but the long term trend has been consolidation in the industry will continue to consolidate in the future and argue, Jared, let's finish on Washington if we can. I was speaking to your colleague Amy with Silverman just yesterday and were reflected on a line that came from Lori Cavasina, who I think described presidential politics in the election on the horizon like staring at the sun. I just wonder if that's what it's like for you. Have you given any thought to changes in leadership in Washington and what might mean for the companies to fall under your cover? John, It's a good question because it's going to be the topic du jour this year, of course, with the election coming. And what we can say is that under the current administration there's been more regulation of banks, particularly with the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. We don't know who's going to be running, you know, just yet in November, but if Trump is the candidate for the other party, the Republican Party, and if he was to win, his administration had less regulation for banks. So if that administration was to come back, you would have to expect they would change the heads of different regulatory agencies in twenty twenty five, and it probably would be less regulation for the banks as we move forward, you know, Johnny. I think Bloomberg Radio is missing it today because we're seeing the fireplace with your dacity here on Bloomberg Television talks about inflation South Paris, Maine. Three hundred and twenty five dollars per cord of red oak that's delivered to Shake Cassidy and he's he's popping like eight night cords of winter. He used a thing about that. I mean, it's adding up. It's expensive. But don't you love the smell. The smell's great. The damn dog is over by the fireplace. The smell you know, this dog's called Elizabeth. We won't call Aaron. We want to thank you, Joe Capital of Marcus, Thank you, sir. Let's get to it, and we do it with an authority that we have had through Auto Tournament of the Eastern Mediterranean. Norman rule joins us now senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the courses work for the nation in intelligence. Norman. When I say Lebanon, for all of us of a certain persuasion, we are completely formed by something frankly is stunning forty years ago, which is the Beirut Barracks bombing. When we lost marines at accountable iwo Jima level. Where are we now with Lebanon, with Hesbela, Do we have a relationship? Was it forever fractured forty years ago? That's an excellent point, and I regret I remember that incident well and lost friends. The event of forty years ago actually had a different message for the world. The US pulled out of Lebanon at that time, and Osama bin Laden later stated that watching the withdrawal of the United States from Lebanon was one of the motivators for him to undertake his operations because he realized the West could be pushed back out of the region. Are we being pushed back now? I mean within the multiple fronts at Lisa Abramowitz's outlined this morning Gods of the West Bank and again up to the border with Lebanon as the West is America being pushed out now? No, we have a very different profile, and indeed, diplomacy is likely going to increase in intensity and come out weeks because we need to come up with a way to move. Lebanese has belowed north of the Israeli border so that Israeli citizens can return to their homes. The thousands tens of thousand of Israeli citizens to open their businesses, go to school, and also so that tens of thousands of Lebanese can return south to that border which has become such a flashpoint in recent weeks. Yeah, hundreds of thousands of people have been misplaced or displaced as a result of some of the fighting on both sides. But Norman and I'm curious whether this is an escalation the fact that Israel did attack according to Hamas, but also with a wink, wink, nod nod from Israeli officials to kill this is Mamas executive. Well, to be clear, Israel has stated from the beginning of the October seventh massacred that it would eradicate the Hamas leadership responsible for that action, and therefore this is no surprise. I think what you have to look at is this drone attack, which Israel has not admitted but is understood to have undertaken, took place in an incredibly secure, prey conscious neighborhood, and it demonstrates an exquisite and dynamic intelligence capacity. So as Hesbula thinks about it's connor its response to this, it's got to think about what is known around us and what can we get away with and what will happen to the people who might be involved in that attack against Israel. Do you have any sense, Norman, of what the conversations are like with Hamas, with Hesbelah, with the Iranian leadership, given the fact that a lot of people think that they're taking some cues from Iran, that there has been funding from Iran, that you have the Iranian warship going to the Red Sea, and the huthis also Iranian fact making noise and trying to interrupt Western shipping lines. Iran It's proxies have no strategic drivers to involve themselves more fully in this conflict. It would impact multiple strategic equities for a game that is uncertain that they have multiple incentives to continue and perhaps raise the intensity of attacks against Israel to show that they have skin in the resistance game. I should also note that today, the January third, is the fourth anniversary of the killing of Cossum Solomoni, and that's a day when one would expect Iranian proxies to attack US or Israeli versus just for that symbolic anniversary. Exactly where I wanted to go normally let's talk about it, the assassination of the major General. It's easy to forget that it ever happened because several weeks later, many weeks later, we were all drowning in a global pandemic. What has happened since then with the relationship between the United States and Iran, between two different white Houses, very little. The indirect engagement that took place did produce the possibility of some sort of engagement, a hostage released by the Iranians in exchange for the release of personnel. But Iran's regional activities did not change, and I don't think the White House expected them to change. More So, Iran's nuclear program has continue to expand. And here's the important point. Iran is now producing enriched uranium at level that no state that is not pursued a nuclear weapon has ever produced. It has no civilian use for the nature of its current enrichment. So you have to ask yourself the question, has the West de facto recognized the Iranian military nuclear program? The White House would say no. The facts do raise the question. Norman a tough way to Segui here, but I'm going to do it as one final question. Taiwan continues to come up within our first of the year conversations. Do we have good intelligence on mainland China? The United States intelligence program against China, has stated by Central Intelligence Agency had Bill Burns, is robust and works significantly. I won't comment on those operations to the extent that I know of them, but I will say that this remains such a priority that it's an all source intelligence programs at all imagery and a variety of different aspects. We're going to have a good understanding of some of China's activities that will provide the warning policy maker's need for the update. You're insights so valuable, Norman Roll there for the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Thank you, sir. Subscribe to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast on Apple, Spotify and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live every weekday starting at seven am Eastern. I'm Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can watch us live on Bloomberg Television and always I'm the Bloomberg Terminal. Thanks for listening. I'm Tom Keen, and this is Bloomberg

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