Post Reports How a mystery gambler scored big on Maduro’s ouster
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Jan 7, 2026 
Andrew Ackerman, a banking reporter for The Washington Post, dives into the intriguing world of prediction markets, where one mystery gambler scored over $400,000 on a bet predicting Nicolás Maduro's ouster. He explains how this anonymous bettor could potentially have inside information and discusses the growing popularity and risks of these loosely regulated markets. From betting on elections to sports, Ackerman highlights the rapid expansion of this industry, alongside concerns of insider trading and the need for regulatory clarity.
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Prediction Markets Are Wildly Broad
- Prediction markets let people bet on sports, geopolitics, and pop culture using crypto wallets.
- Polymarket operates offshore and offers wide-open markets with limited regulation or liquidity.
Mysterious Wallet Wins Big On Maduro
- An anonymous wallet placed small bets that grew into larger wagers on Maduro being ousted by month-end.
- Hours before the raid a final ~$7,000 bet led to a $400k+ payout when Maduro was captured.
Blockchain Shows Bets But Not Identity
- The blockchain ledger made it possible to see the wallet's betting history but not the person's identity.
- Investigators could trace funds but identifying the bettor across jurisdictions may be difficult.